海洋生态预报的研究进展与发展应用  

Research progress and developmental application of marine ecological forecasting

作　　者：高姗[1] 刘桂梅[1] 王辉[1] 郑静静[1] GAO Shan;LIU Gui-mei;WANG Hui;ZHENG Jing-jing(Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081 China)

机构地区：[1]国家海洋环境预报中心自然资源部海洋灾害预报技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2020年第2期84-93,共10页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家重点研发计划海洋环境安全保障专项(2016YFC1401605、2016YFC1401800);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA11020104);国家自然科学基金项目(41206023、41222038)。

摘　　要：从介绍海洋生态预报的概念和作用开始,根据赤潮、绿潮、水母暴发、珊瑚白化等海洋生态灾害的致灾种类和涉及的富营养化、低氧和致病菌等灾害指标,阐述了国内外近年来海洋生态预报的研究进展,进而探讨了河口区、陆架海以及全球大洋等不同海域差异所涉及的海洋生态预报的发展应用,论述了经验预报、统计预报和数值预报等海洋生态预报的国内外研究进展与实际应用,最后展望提出海洋生态预报在未来发展中面临的挑战和亟需解决的关键科学问题。This paper begins with the introduction of the concept and function of marine ecological forecasting.The development status of marine ecological forecasting is expounded, according to the types of marine ecological disasters, such as harmful algal blooms(red tide), green macroalgae blooms(green tide), jellyfish outbreak, coral whitening, and disaster indicators, such as eutrophication, hypoxia and pathogenic bacteria.Moreover, the application of marine ecological forecasting in different sea areas is given examples for the estuaries near the shore, the offshore sea(continental shelf)and the global oceanic waters. Furthermore, the paper illustrates the domestic and international operational application of the marine ecological forecasting methods, such as experience, statistical and numerical forecasting methods. Finally, the paper discusses key scientific issues of marine ecological forecasting in the context of future challenges.

关 键 词：海洋生态预报 赤潮 绿潮 水母 数值预报 

分 类 号：Q178.53[生物学—水生生物学]