快速城镇化区域城镇用地扩张模拟研究  

A Study on Simulation of Land Expansion on the Rapid Urbanization Area

作　　者：刘瑾[1,2,3] 田永中 田林[1] 张雪倩 万祖毅[1] 刘旭东 LIU Jin;TIAN Yongzhong;TIAN Lin;ZHANG Xueqian;WAN Zuyi;LIU Xudong(School of Geographical Sciences,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715;Daotian Science and Technology Limited Company,Chongqing 400700;Institute of Chongqing Western Big Data Frontier Application,Chongqing 401120)

机构地区：[1]西南大学地理科学学院,重庆400715 [2]重庆稻田科技有限公司,重庆400700 [3]重庆西部大数据前沿应用研究院,重庆401120

出　　处：《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期403-410,共8页Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划项目(14YJAZH097)。

摘　　要：深入研究快速城镇化区域土地利用演变规律及驱动机制、模拟用地扩张,对了解区域未来用地状况、科学合理编制城乡规划具有重要的参考价值.以重庆两江新区为例,选取3期Landsat影像,采用基于决策向导的元胞自动机和马尔科夫链(CA-Markov)的综合模型,结合GIS空间分析方法,对过去6年间研究区的用地类型时空转化特征进行分析,模拟研究区用地状况并采用多时相的遥感图像进行检验,利用经过验证的限制条件和因子模拟研究区未来的用地格局.结果显示:基于决策向导的CA-Markov模型对模拟城镇用地扩张具有可靠性,模拟精度可达80.62%;研究区未来建设用地将继续大幅扩张,调整现有规划增加建设用地以及提高当前土地集约利用程度方能满足进一步发展需求.Exploring the regular pattern and driving force of regional land use evolution,and simulating land expansion,are necessary to study the evolution rules and driving mechanism of regional land use in rapid urbanization. Using Landsat images of 2010,2013 and 2016 in Chongqing Liangjiang New Area,the paper analyzes the spatial and temporal transformation characteristics of land type in the study area in the past 6 years by the method of geographic information system( GIS) spatial analysis. On the other hand,basing on the comprehensive model of cellular automata and Markoff chain( CA-Markov) based on decision guide( Decision Wizard),this paper simulates the land use in 2016,and uses Multi-phase remote sensing to have a test for validate model. Next,with the verified constraints and factors reasonably to predicted the future land use structure of research area in 2025. The study shows that: 1) Study areas have seen significant growth in construction land,and most have been converted from farmland over the past six years,and the obviously trend of urban land expansion is to northeast. 2) The simulation accuracy in 2016 is 80.62%,which means that the CA-Markov model based on Decision Wizard is reliable for simulating urban land expansion. 3) The future construction land of the study area will continue to expand substantially,and the existing planning need to be adjusted to expand the scope of construction land and improve the current level of intensive land use can meet the further development needs.

关 键 词：用地模拟 CA模型 MARKOV模型 决策向导 重庆两江新区 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]