四川省九龙县暴雨诱发泥石流的时空特征及其阈值确定  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Threshold Determination for Rainfall-induced Debris Flows in Jiulong County,Sichuan Province

作　　者：李锡强 王敏 冉王群 陈政道 牟杰 阿的鲁骥 LI Xiqiang;WANG Min;RAN Wangqun;CHEN Zhengdao;MU Jie;ADE Luji(Meteorological Bureau of Jiulong County,Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Jiulong 626200,Sichuan;Meteorological Bureau of Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,Kangding 626000,Sichuan;College of Pastorala Griculture Science and Technology,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu)

机构地区：[1]四川省甘孜藏族自治州九龙县气象局,四川九龙626200 [2]四川省甘孜藏族自治州气象局,四川康定626000 [3]兰州大学草地农业科技学院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《四川师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期411-416,共6页Journal of Sichuan Normal University（Natural Science）

基　　金：四川省甘孜藏族自治州气象局科研项目(2017-4)。

摘　　要：暴雨是诱发四川省九龙县泥石流灾害的主要因素,本研究对九龙县气象局1952-2018年的气象数据和1991-2018年的泥石流灾害数据进行分析.结果表明:九龙县暴雨诱发泥石流具有明显的时空特征,九龙县境内各地均有发生泥石流灾害的可能性,发生概率由北向南依次增加,九龙县南部是泥石流的高发区;20:00-02:00是泥石流发生的高发时段.依据各种资料建立九龙县暴雨诱发泥石流预警指标体系:当降水强度大于16~20 mm/h时诱发泥石流的可能性较大,为注意级;降水强度在20~35mm/h时诱发泥石流的可能性很大,为预警级;降水强度≥35 mm//h时诱发泥石流的可能性极大,为警报级.Rainstorm is the main factor that induces debris flow disaster in Jiulong County,Sichuan province. The Jiulong county rainstorm prediction and early warning index system was established. We analyzde the meteorological data from 1952 to 2018 and debris flow disaster data from 1991 to 2018 from Meteorological Bureau of Jiulong County. The results indicated that rainfall-induced debris flows has obvious spatio-temporal characteristics,there is the possibility of debris flow disaster in Jiulong,and it increases from north to south( easy occurrence area). Debris flow can be induced when the precipitation intensity is greater than 16 mm/h,and the precipitation intensity greater than 20 mm/h is the warning level. 02: 00-05: 00 and 20: 00-02: 00 are the periods of high occurrence of debris flow.

关 键 词：九龙县 暴雨泥石流 时空特征 预警指标体系 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]