区域作物产量的模型预测研究  

Prediction of Regional Crop Yield Based on Model

作　　者：李威 顾峰雪[1] Li Wei;Gu Fengxue(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Key Laboratory of Dryland Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业农村部旱作节水农业重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2020年第3期104-111,共8页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0301301)。

摘　　要：区域作物产量预测是国家粮食安全评估的重要内容,关系到国家的安全稳定与可持续发展。首先对目前应用较为广泛的作物产量预测模型进行了简单分析,对比了这些模型的优势与局限性。其中,作物生长模型因其系统性、机理性、动态性的特点而被广泛应用,并在其基础上发展了专家决策系统。作物生长模型不仅在单点尺度上能成功模拟作物的生长发育过程,还可以扩展到区域尺度,符合中国进行粮食产量长期预测的需求。最后,简述了几种常见的生态系统过程模型,以及在其基础上发展的农业版本,并对未来区域作物产量预测的模型方法进行了展望和总结。Regional crop yield prediction is an important part of national food security assessment,which is related to national security,stability and sustainable development.Firstly,we analyzed crop yield prediction models widely used,and compared the advantages and limitations of these models.Crop growth models are widely used because of their advantages in systematicness,mechanism and dynamics,and they also contribute to the establishment and development of the expert decision-making systems.Crop growth models can not only successfully simulate the crop growth and productivity at a single point scale,but also be extended to regional scales,therefore they can be used for China's long-term grain yield prediction.Finally,we introduced the application of several process-based ecosystem models and their agricultural version in prediction of crop yield,and made a summary and outlook to the model methods of future regional crop yield prediction.

关 键 词：粮食安全 产量预测模型 作物生长模型 生态系统过程模型 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]