湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情早期流行与武汉人口迁出情况初步分析  

An Analysis of Epidemic of Neo-Coronavirus Pneumonia in Hubei Province and Population Emigration in Wuhan

作　　者：张霄艳 向晨 ZHANG Xiao-yan;XIANG Chen(School of politics,law and public administration,Hubei University,Wuhan,430062,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学政法与公共管理学院,湖北武汉430062

出　　处：《宜春学院学报》2020年第4期32-36,共5页Journal of Yichun University

摘　　要：目的通过对湖北省2020年1月13日至2020年2月3日的新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行情况和湖北省内人口迁移情况进行统计分析和统计描述,了解湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行情况和武汉人口迁出情况及两者的关系,为疫情防控提供依据和建议。方法从湖北省及湖北省各地级市卫健委官方网站公布的疫情公告中获得病例数据,对其进行统计描述与统计分析;利用百度迁徙所获得的数据与湖北省各地级市总确诊病例数进行相关分析。结果截至2020年2月3日,湖北省新型冠状病毒肺炎总确诊病例数呈上升趋势;武汉市迁出人口主要目的地为孝感市、黄冈市;湖北省各地级市确诊病例数信息与武汉市迁入各地级市人口数量总数呈正相关关系,相关系数达0.91。结论湖北省采取“封城”措施具有十分重要的意义,防止了疫情的进一步扩散,但同时也存在疫情控制措施有所滞后、后勤保障措施不够全面的问题,应进一步采取和执行更加严格的疫情防控措施,严格控制人口流动,加强对疑似病例的监测与管理。同时,政府也需要加大财力支持,不断完善后勤和保障措施,加强医疗物资的生产和调配,推进医疗研究工作的展开,打好此次疫情狙击战。Objective Through the statistical analysis and description of the prevalence of novel coronavirus pneumonia and the population migration in Hubei province on January 13,2020,solstice on February 3,2020 to understand the prevalence of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei province,the population moving out of Wuhan and the relationship between them,and to provide evidence and Suggestions for epidemic prevention and control.Methods The case data obtained from the official website of Hubei province and Hubei provincial prefecture-level municipal health commission were statistically described and analyzed,Correlation analysis was conducted between the data obtained by baidu migration and the total number of confirmed cases in prefecture-level cities in Hubei province.Results As of February 3,2020,the total number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei province is on the rise and the main destinations of the outgoing population in Wuhan are Xiaogan city and Huanggang city.The number of confirmed cases in each prefecture-level city in Hubei province was positively correlated with the total population of each prefecture-level city in Wuhan,with a correlation coefficient of 0.91.Conclusion It is of great significance for Hubei province to adopt the“city closure”measures to prevent the further spread of the epidemic.But at the same time,there are some problems such as lagging epidemic control measures and insufficient logistic support measures.More stringent epidemic prevention and control measures should be further adopted and implemented,population movement should be strictly controlled,and surveillance and management of suspected cases should be strengthened.At the same time,the government also needs to increase financial support,constantly improve logistics and safeguard measures,strengthen the production and deployment of medical materials,promote medical research work,and fight the outbreak of sniper war.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 湖北省 早期流行情况 武汉人口迁徙情况 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]