2013年芦山MS7.0地震前南北地震带数字化水位、水温高频信息异常特征及效能分析  

Analysis on Anomalous Characteristics and Earthquake Prediction Efficiency of High-frequency Information from Digital Water Level and Water Temperature before 2013 Lushan M7.0 Earthquake in the North-South Seismic Belt of China

作　　者：王喜龙[1] 贾晓东[1] 钱蕊[1] 付聪[1] WANG Xi-long;JIA Xiao-dong;QIAN Rui;FU Cong(Liaoning Earthquake Agency,Shenyang 110034,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省地震局,辽宁沈阳110034

出　　处：《地震》2020年第2期100-116,共17页Earthquake

基　　金：地震科技星火计划(XH19007Y);中国地震局震情跟踪定向工作任务(2020010307,2019010503)。

摘　　要：数字化观测资料中含有丰富的高频异常信息,这些高频信息中可能隐含着与地震有关的异常信号。引入概率密度分布法对2013年4月20日芦山MS7.0地震发生前南北地震带水位、水温分钟值观测数据高频成分进行分析,结果表明,芦山MS7.0地震前南北地震带共有17个测点、 19组数据出现高频异常信息,其中水位5组、水温14组,高频异常多集中在四川南部构造带,且随着时间进程发展,异常幅值逐渐减小且异常出现向震中区迁移的特征。通过应用Molchan图表法对提取的高频信息进行统计检验,结果显示,概率密度分布法提取的高频异常对地震具有较好的预测效果。通过对震源区及附近区域大地构造演化、前兆异常发展及地壳运动速度场等特征分析,结果发现,计算得到的地下流体高频异常空间分布特征与南北地震带地壳运动场具有很好的一致性,表明利用概率密度分布法提取的高频异常与区域构造活动存在一定相关性,同时也为前人关于对异常形成机理的研究提供了旁证。Compared with low frequency observation data, there is a great deal of tectonic information in high frequency observational data, creating favorable conditions for us to catch the precursor information in earthquake inoculation and seismic trending research. Using the probability density distribution method, we analyze the observed fluid data of water level and water temperature in the area of the north-south seismic zone before the Lushan MS7.0 earthquake on 20 April, 2013. The analysis results show that 14 water temperature and 5 water level data had the high frequency anomalies before the MS7.0 earthquake, and the points of abnormal information were concentrated in the tectonic belts in the southern of the Sichuan. The high-frequency anomalies were migrated to the epicenter and the variation range were decreased gradually over time. Using Molchan Error Dagram Method to analyze the relationship between high frequency information and earthquakes nearby, it shows that the forecast efficiency of the high frequency information have a good test result. Based on the analysis of tectonic evolution, anomalous development of earthquake precursor and strain rates near the earthquake epicenter, found that the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of these abnormal information had a well consistency with the crustal deformation of the North-South seismic belt. Proved that the PDD(probability density distribution) not only can effectively reflect the regional tectonic stress field, but also verified the research of the formation mechanism.

关 键 词：水位 水温 高频信息 预报效能 2013年芦山MS7.0地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]