基于三角模糊云贝叶斯网络的盾构下穿段施工风险评估  

On the Triangular Fuzzy Cloud Bayesian Network-Based Risk Assessment of the Shield-Tunneling Construction Under-Crossing Existing Buildings

作　　者：陈洪波 王宁[2] 王建西[2] CHEN Hongbo;WANG Ning;WANG Jianxi(The Investment Co. Ltd. of the State Railway Corporation of China, Beijing 100160,China;Key Laboratory of Road and Railway Engineering Safety Control of the Education Ministry,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁投资集团有限公司,北京100160 [2]石家庄铁道大学道路与铁道工程安全保障教育部重点实验室,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《国防交通工程与技术》2020年第3期13-18,共6页Traffic Engineering and Technology for National Defence

摘　　要：为进行不确定性数据下地铁下穿施工风险评估,构建了基于三角模糊云贝叶斯网络(BN)的风险分析模型。将三角模糊数与云理论相结合,提出了定性评判向定量概率分布转化的方法。引入层次分析法(AHP)和状态影响因子得到云数字特征,生成随机风险云与统计方法计算节点条件概率表CPT。以实际工程为依托,建立了风险评价指标体系和网络模型,分析了施工风险水平和因素敏感性。研究结果与实际相吻合,验证了模型的合理性和有效性。A triangular fuzzy cloud Bayesian network-based(BN)risk analysis model is established for the risk assessment of the shield-tunneling metro construction under-crossing existing buildings in the conditions of knowing no certain data.Upon the basis of combining the triangular fuzzy number with the cloud theory,the inversion method of the probability distribution from the qualitative assessment to the quantitative assessment is put forward in the present paper,with the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the state-affecting factors introduced to obtain the digital characteristics of the cloud.Using the random risk cloud and the statistical method to obtain the conditional probability table(CPT)which represent the effects of the nodes.With practical projects as the background,the risk evaluation index system and the BN model are established,upon the basis of which both the risk prediction for the construction and the sensitivity of the factors are analyzed.The results of the model analysis are found to be in consistence with those of the actual project,which verifies the rationality and effectiveness of the model.

关 键 词：盾构下穿 风险评估 三角模糊数 云模型 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：U458.1[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]