基于不同预测方法组合的郑州市工业需水量评价  

Evaluation of Industrial Water Demand of Zhengzhou City Based on Different Prediction Methods

作　　者：吴泽宁[1] 张海君 王慧亮[1] WU Ze-ning;ZHANG Hai-jun;WANG Hui-liang(School of Water Conservancy and Environment,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2020年第3期46-48,共3页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51739009,51879242,51379191)。

摘　　要：合理预测需水量是水资源优化配置的关键,为预测2025、2030年郑州市的工业需水量,运用定额法、回归分析法和系统动力学方法开展确定性需水预测,在三种方法预测结果的基础上,采用随机数生成及置信区间算法等推求95%置信区间的需水预测。结果表明,郑州市2025年工业需水量为7.086×10^8~7.163×10^8 m^3,2030年工业需水量为8.619×10^8~8.876×10^8 m^3。研究结果对指导区域水资源可持续利用具有一定的理论与实践意义。The reasonable forecasting water demand is the key to optimizing the allocation of water resources.For the prediction of industrial water demand in Zhengzhou City in 2025 and 2030,quota method,regression analysis and system dynamics method were used to carry out a deterministic water demand prediction.Based on the results of three methods,random number generation and confidence interval algorithm were adopted to calculate the water demand of 95%confidence interval.The results show that the industrial water demand of Zhengzhou is 7.086×10^8-7.163×10^8 m^3 in 2025 and8.619×10^8-8.876×10^8 m^3 in 2030.The research results have certain theoretical and practical significance for guiding the sustainable utilization of regional water resources.

关 键 词：定额法 回归分析 系统动力学 置信区间 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]