人口老龄化、养老保险缴费率与基本养老金目标替代率  

Population Aging,Pension Insurance Contribution Rate and Target Replacement Rate of Basic Pension Insurance

作　　者：周心怡 邓龙真 龚锋[2] ZHOU XinYi;DENG LongZhen;GONG Feng(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《财贸研究》2020年第2期57-67,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“应对中国人口老龄化的公共政策评估与设计——基于‘财政可持续性、长期经济增长与代际财政平等’三维视角的可计算动态一般均衡分析”(71773086);教育部人文社科基金规划项目“应对人口老龄化的中国公共政策评估与设计:基于可计算动态一般均衡模型的预测分析”(17YJA790022);武汉大学人文社会科学自主科研青年项目“中国人口老龄化的动态经济效应评估与政策设计研究”(2017QN037)。

摘　　要：构建一个包含“统账结合”养老金制度的跨期迭代模型,基于联合国人口预测数据模拟老龄化对2020—2100年中国基本养老金替代率的影响,并考察为维持59.2%的目标替代率应如何调整企业和个人的基本养老金缴费率。结果显示:人口老龄化将导致替代率大幅度降低;为维持目标替代率水平,需要大幅度提升缴费率;实施延迟退休能够显著降低为确保目标替代率而不得不提高的缴费率。有鉴于此,中国应综合实施延迟退休、调整缴费率的联动政策,在控制缴费负担、减少效率损失的基础上实现目标替代率,确保基本养老保险体系的养老保障质量。This paper constructs an intertemporal iterative model that includes a“combined accounting system”pension system.Based on the United Nations population forecast data,it simulates the impact of aging on China’s basic pension replacement rate in 2020-2100,and examines how to adjust the pension contribution rate of enterprises and individuals in order to maintain the target replacement rate of 59.2%.The results show that the aging of the population will lead to a significant reduction in the rate of substitution.In order to maintain the target replacement rate,it is necessary to significantly increase the contribution rate.The implementation of delayed retirement can significantly reduce the contribution rate that has to be increased to ensure the target replacement rate.Therefore,the government should comprehensively implement the linkage policy of delaying retirement and adjusting the contribution rate,and achieve the target replacement rate on the basis of controlling the payment burden and reducing the efficiency loss.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 基本养老保险 目标替代率 延迟退休 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]