群组DEMATEL动态决策方法研究  

A Research on Group DEMATEL Dynamic Decision

作　　者：谢晖[1] 蔡菊芳 孙永河[1] XIE Hui;CAI Jufang;SUN Yonghe(Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650093,China;Finance Department,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093 [2]昆明理工大学财务处,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《昆明理工大学学报（自然科学版）》2020年第2期143-150,共8页Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71561015);云南省人培项目(14119073).

摘　　要：在现代决策中,为提高决策的科学性与准确性,既需要群体的智慧,也需要专家的多次交互,以期充分获取决策信息与决策知识.DEMATEL是为解决复杂决策问题而提出的一种"简化系统结构、筛选系统关键要素"的决策方法,然而现有研究成果多停留于静态层面而忽略了动态情境下DEMATEL决策方法的应用,为此本文构建了一种群组DEMATEL动态决策方法,该方法基于传统DEMATEL决策运算步骤,依据决策实际情境考虑了决策的时间前后关联性与决策方案的前后关联性,详细阐释了决策要素的动态演化机理,给出了具体的实现步骤,使得决策结果更加符合在复杂情境下的决策背景,之后通过一个实例验证了所提出方法的科学性与实用性.In modern decision-making,not only group’s wisdom but also experts’repeated interaction for multi-rounds are necessary to improve the scientificalness and accuracy of decision-making,so more decision information and knowledge could be acquired adequately.DEMATEL is a decision method that can simplify the structure of system and select key factors for solving complex decision problems.However,the existing research results are mostly static and ignore the application of DEMATEL decision method in dynamic situation.This paper proposed a method about group DEMATEL dynamic decision.Based on traditional DEMATEL decision procedure,this method takes account of the relevance of decision-making time and the decision-making process,illustrates the dynamic evolution mechanism of decision factors in detail,and gives the specific implementation steps,makes the decision result more accord with the decision under complex situation background.Then,the proposed method is proved by an example to be scientific and practical.

关 键 词：群组DEMATEL 动态决策 复杂情境 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]