基于物元可拓灰聚类模型的采空区火灾风险预测  

Prediction of Goaf Fire Risk Based on Matter-element Extension and Grey-clustering Model

作　　者：吕辰 薛生[2] 刘辉 徐晓萌 LYU Chen;XUE Sheng;LIU Hui;XU Xiao-meng(College of Quality and Safety Engineering,China Jiliang University,Hangzhou 310018,China;Key Laboratory of Safety and High-efficiency Coal Mining,the Ministry of Education(Anhui University of Science and Technology),Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]中国计量大学质量与安全工程学院,杭州310018 [2]煤矿安全高效开采省部共建教育部重点实验室(安徽理工大学),安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《煤炭技术》2020年第4期107-110,共4页Coal Technology

基　　金：浙江省高校人才引进项目计划资助(01101000644);教育部重点实验室开放基金(JYBSYS2019102);国家自然科学基金(51804287)。

摘　　要：从煤的自燃发火特性、采空区供氧和聚热条件等方面,研究建立了采空区遗煤自然发火风险评估分级指标体系;根据预测系统的灰特性将物元分析和灰聚类理论相结合,构建了采空区火灾节域物元MAP及风险灰类关系度σki计算模型,提出了一种新的采空区遗煤自然发火风险评估方法。通过潘北矿1212(3)采煤工作面实际应用结果表明,该方法对建模样本的数目没有限制,计算分析过程简单,易于实现安全信息管理与决策,且采空区火灾预测效果较好。An index system of risk assessment classification of spontaneous combustion in goaf was developed by considering anumber of factors such as inherent properties of coal spontaneous combustion,oxygen ingress to goaf in the process of mining,and the goaf conditions for heat accumulation and dissipation. The matter-element analysis and grey-clustering theory were then combined in establishing the extensional matter element of spontaneous combustion in goaf MAPand computing model of risk of gray relationship degree σkito develop a new method to evaluate the risk of spontaneous combustion in goaf. The new method was applied in 1212(3) coal face of Panbei mine. The field application indicates that this method has no limit to number of model samples, calculation and analysis process is quite simple,it is easy to implement in terms of management and decision-making of safety information,and more importantly the prediction with this method is quite accurate.

关 键 词：评价指标 物元分析 采空区遗煤自燃 火灾风险评估 

分 类 号：TD752[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]