TRMM在海河流域南系的降水估算精度评价及其对SWAT模型的适用性  

Evaluation of TRMM satellite-based rainfall data in southern Haihe River Basin and suitability for SWAT model

作　　者：谭丽丽 黄峰 乔学瑾 刘海鹏 李春强 李保国 Tan Lili;Huang Feng;Qiao Xuejin;Liu Haipeng;Li Chunqiang;Li Baoguo(College of Land Science and Technology,China Agricultural University,Key Laboratory of Arable Land Conservation in North China,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,and Key Laboratory of Land Quality,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100193,China;Meteorological Research Institute of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,农业农村部华北耕地保育重点实验室,自然资源部农用地质量与监控重点实验室,北京100193 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄050021

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2020年第6期132-141,F0004,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发项目:旱作区土壤肥力和生产力演变规律及肥沃耕层特征(2016YFD0300801);旱作区典型耕地绿水和蓝水循环特征与水分生产力研究(2016YFD0300801013)。

摘　　要：准确估算区域降水对水文过程评价和水资源管理意义重大。为评估TRMM 3B42V7降水产品在海河流域南系的估算精度及其在土壤和水评估模型(Soil and Water Assessment Tool,SWAT)中的适用性,利用28个气象站降水观测数据(2007-2016年)和101个雨量站观测数据(2010-2016年)开展研究。研究表明:站点尺度上,3B42V7降水产品对月降水估算的均方根误差小于15 mm,平均误差小于8.5 mm;在湿润季节的估算精度更好。流域尺度上,日降水估算精度较差,相关系数小于0.6。分区尺度上,3B42V7能够很好地捕捉到不同等级降水强度,但对微量降雨有所低估;山区和平原的年降水量均出现高估现象,平原区较为突出;此外,3B42V7能够较好地捕捉到研究区内极端降水的时间和空间分布。分2种情景进行水文模拟,利用月平均流量对模型进行校准和验证,在情景Ⅰ中,验证期模拟结果较好,决定系数在0.56~0.96之间,纳什效率系数在-11.09~0.94之间。TRMM 3B42V7可为海河流域及其类似区域的水资源管理提供参考。Accurate estimation of regional precipitation plays an important role in hydrologic process evaluation and water resources management. Southern Haihe River Basin is the region with the highest degree of water resources exploitation and utilization, however, excessive exploitation of surface water and groundwater causes a series of ecological and environmental problems, which leads to a serious threat to water security. In this study, the accuracy of 3 B42 V7 estimation of precipitation in Southern Haihe River Basin was evaluated on different spatial and temporal scales, and its applicability to hydrological model SWAT was verified. The daily rainfall data from 28 meteorological stations(2007-2016) and 101 rain gauges(2010-2016)were used to evaluate the accuracy on TRMM 3 B42 V7. Correlation coefficient, relative bias ratio, mean error and root mean square error were used to quantitatively evaluate the rainfall accuracy of 3 B42 V7. Moreover, determinate coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency were used to quantitatively evaluate SWAT simulation results. Two scenarios were set up to drive the SWAT model. In scenario I, the daily rainfall data(2010-2014) from rain gauges and 3 B42 V7 grid rainfall(2015-2016) were utilized to drive the model. In scenario II, the daily rainfall data(2010-2016) from meteorological stations were used to drive the model. The results showed 3 B42 V7 had strong estimation ability in monthly estimation of precipitation with the root mean square error less than 15 mm and average monthly precipitation error less than 8.5 mm. However, it was poor in daily precipitation estimation with the correlation coefficient less than 0.6. The number of rainfall stations with the relative bias ratio between-20% and 20% accounted for 81% and 79% during the summer season and growing period of maize, which indicated that 3 B42 V7 performed better during the wet seasons. In addition, 3 B42 V7 could well capture the rainfall intensity at all levels, however, zero/light rain were underestimated

关 键 词：遥感 降雨 TRMM 3B42V7评估 SWAT 水文模拟 海河流域南系 

分 类 号：P338.8[天文地球—水文科学] P457.6[水利工程—水文学及水资源]