农产品供应链金融风险度量及经验数据分析  

Analysis of Agricultural Products Supply Chain Finance Risk Measurement and Empirical Data

作　　者：耿晓媛[1] 冷志杰[1] GENG Xiao-yuan;LENG Zhi-jie(School of Economics and Management,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing,Heilongjiang 163319)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江八一农垦大学经济管理学院,黑龙江大庆163319

出　　处：《供应链管理》2020年第2期86-95,共10页SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目——主产区粮食产后服务主体的收储行为及供应链治理机制研究(17BJY118).

摘　　要：供应链金融的风险管控关乎企业的持续经营以及供应链成员企业之间的长久合作。文章选取了15家具有代表性的农产品生产加工企业、供应商和仓储物流三类上市公司,收集了其从2017年9月30日到2018年9月30日的股票价格信息,运用EViews和MATLAB通过修正的KMV模型,量化了这15家企业的违约风险。通过对违约距离进行横向比较,得到农产品供应链中各类型企业的相对违约风险,并对该模型进行验证。结果表明,修正的KMV模型能够较好地运用在我国的农产品供应链金融风险度量中,对以后的相关研究具有一定的参考意义。The risk management of supply chain finance concerns the continuous operation of enterprises and the long-term cooperation among supply chain members.Fifteen representative agricultural products production and processing enterprises,suppliers,warehousing and logistics enterprises were investigated,including their stock price information from September 30,2017 to September 30,2018.EViews and MATLAB were used to quantify the default risk of these 15 companies through the modified KMV model.Based on the horizontal comparison of the default distance,the relative default risk of various types of enterprises in the agricultural products supply chain was obtained,and the validity of the modified KMV model was verified at the same time.The results show that the modified KMV model can be used in the financial risk measurement of agricultural products supply chain in China,and it has reference significance for the related research in the future.

关 键 词：供应链金融 修正KMV模型 农产品供应链 风险度量 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]