中国货币政策的广义信用传导效应--基于社会融资规模结构视角  

Generalized Credit Transmission Effect of Monetary Policy in China: From the Perspective of Social Financing Scale Structure

作　　者：孙巍[1] 张男 SUN Wei;ZHANG Nan(Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期7-16,共10页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(16JJD790015)。

摘　　要：现阶段中国货币政策从操作目标向中介目标和最终目标的传导主要通过广义信用渠道。本文从理论上梳理了中国货币政策传导机制,将社会融资规模分解为信贷、表外融资和直接融资三个信用扩张渠道,实证研究了中国货币政策的广义信用传导效应。结果显示:信贷在社会融资规模中长期占据主导地位,中国货币政策在广义信用渠道方面的传导仍然以信贷为主,表外融资次之,直接融资效果最弱;随着利率市场化的推进,货币政策向广义信用的传导力度和速度均有明显改善,应推进深层次结构性改革、利率并轨和实质上的市场化。基于此,对中国货币政策的量价转型从"总量-结构"的功能性角度,提出构建一种新的"价格为主、参考数量"的货币政策量价搭配调控范式。At present, the transmission of monetary policy from operational target to intermediate and ultimate target is mainly through generalized credit channel. This paper theoretically sorts out the transmission mechanism of China’s monetary policy, decomposes the scale of social financing into three credit expansion channels: loan, off-balance sheet financing and direct financing, and empirically studies the generalized credit transmission effect of China’s monetary policy. The results show that loan plays a dominant role in the scale of social financing for a long term, and the transmission of China’s monetary policy in the generalized credit channel is still dominated by it, followed by off-balance sheet financing, and direct financing is the weakest. With the promotion of interest rate marketization, the transmission strength and speed of monetary policy to generalized credit have been significantly improved, we should promote the deep-level structural reform and the interest rates marketization in essence. Combined with the research results and the comparative analysis with existing literatures, this paper makes further theoretical discussion on the transformation of quantity and price monetary policy, and proposes to construct a new "price-oriented and combined quantity" collocation regulation paradigm of monetary policy from the perspective of "total-structure".

关 键 词：货币政策 信用传导 社会融资规模 信用扩张渠道 量价转型 TVP-SV-FAVAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]