梯级水库群环境风险分析  

Analysis of Environmental Risks from Cascade Reservoirs

作　　者：汤正阳 汪磊[1,2] 任玉峰[1,2] 林俊强 罗小林 TANG Zhengyang;WANG Lei;REN Yufeng;LIN Junqiang;LUO Xiaolin(China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China;Three Gorges Cascade Dispatch&Communication Center,Yichang 443133,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团公司,北京100038 [2]三峡水利枢纽梯级调度通信中心,湖北宜昌443133 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《三峡生态环境监测》2020年第1期48-54,共7页Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2013CB036406)。

摘　　要：为提高梯级水库群环境风险管理水平,加强流域生态环境保护,以溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库为研究对象,基于灾害系统理论和系统动力学,对溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险进行了系统梳理,辨识了梯级水库环境风险承载体、风险源、风险诱因,分析了环境风险传递机理,采用贝叶斯理论进行库区水体藻类爆发概率计算。结果表明:溪洛渡-向家坝梯级水库环境风险通过水流、电流、系统动力学流进行传播,并会影响到电站机组和水工建筑物的安全,由于水动力减弱和库区污染物排放,导致库区水体藻类爆发概率为2.42%,死鱼概率为1.21%,在此基础上,绘制环境风险传递拓扑图,并提出相应的环境风险管控措施。In order to improve the environmental management level and strengthen the ecological protection,the environmental risks of Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs in the downstream of Jinsha River were analyzed.Based on the theories of disaster system and system dynamics,the risk bodies,risk sources and risk inducements of environmental disasters were identified.The transfer mechanism was analyzed and probabilities of algae eruption were calculated with Bayesian theory.The results showed that the environmental risks from Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs can spread through the flow,current and system dynamics,and affect the safety of power station units and hydraulic structures.The probability of algae eruption and dead fish are estimated at 2.42%and 1.21%,respectively,due to the weakening of hydrodynamic forces and the discharge of pollutants.At the end,the transfer topological diagram of environmental risks was drawn down and the control measures were proposed for risk prevention.

关 键 词：梯级水库 环境 灾害系统 风险控制 

分 类 号：X820[环境科学与工程—环境工程]