中国低碳试点政策实施效果评估  

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of China's Low Carbon Pilot Policy

作　　者：任亚运 程芳芳 傅京燕[1,2] Ren Yayun;Cheng Fangfang;Fu Jingyan(College of Economics,Jinan University;Green and Low Carbon Development Institute,Jinan University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,510632 [2]暨南大学绿色与低碳发展研究院,510632

出　　处：《环境经济研究》2020年第1期21-35,共15页Journal of Environmental Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“高质量发展视角下经济增长与环境保护的联动机制及共融模式”(19BJY079)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：为应对全球气候变化,中国作出了一系列碳减排承诺并出台系列低碳政策措施,其中低碳试点政策是非常重要的一项针对性政策,其政策有效性事关中国低碳减排承诺能否顺利实现。故本文选择2008-2015年省级面板数据,利用双重差分模型评估低碳试点政策的效果,结果显示我国低碳试点政策显著降低了二氧化碳排放量和排放强度。为进一步排除其他政策对低碳试点政策有效性的干扰,本文做了一系列稳健性检验,均验证了研究结果的可靠性。根据研究结果,本文从将低碳试点政策在全国范围内推广、积极探索低碳控排新技术、建立控制温室气体排放目标考核制度三个层面给出具体的政策建议。In response to global climate change,China has made a series of carbon emission reduction commitments and issued a series of low-carbon policy measures,of which the low-carbon pilot is a very important and targeted policy,and its policy effectiveness is related to whether China's low carbon emission reduction commitment can be achieved smoothly.Therefore,this paper selects the provincial panel data from 2008 to 2015,and uses the double difference model to evaluate the policy effects,the results show that low carbon pilot policy significantly reduces carbon dioxide emissions and emission intensity.Further,in order to rule out the interference of other policies on the effectiveness of low-carbon pilot policies,this paper also made a series of robustness tests,all of which verified the reliability of the research results.According to the research results,this paper gives specific policy recommendations from the three aspects of promoting the low-carbon pilot policy nationwide,actively exploring new low-carbon control technologies,and establishing a target system for controlling greenhouse gas emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放 低碳试点政策 双重差分 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]