考虑不确定性变量模糊相关性的智能配电网概率潮流计算  

Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation in Smart Distribution Networks Considering Fuzzy Correlation Between Uncertainty Variables

作　　者：徐双蝶 张焰[1] 苏运 XU Shuangdie;ZHANG Yan;SU Yun(School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Minhang District,Shanghai 200240,China;State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company,Pudong New District,Shanghai 200122,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市闵行区200240 [2]国网上海市电力公司,上海市浦东新区200122

出　　处：《电网技术》2020年第4期1488-1498,共11页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家863高技术研究发展计划项目(2015AA050203)。

摘　　要：智能配电网的发展伴随着大规模光伏发电、风电和电动汽车的并网。为处理上述新型电源和负荷的不确定性及相关性,提出一种考虑变量模糊相关性的配电网概率潮流计算方法,建立了不确定性变量概率模型,用三角模糊数表示输入变量之间的相关系数,采用改进的三点估计法计算配电网模糊概率潮流。针对相关系数的模糊性,通过模糊化Nataf变换生成具有模糊相关性的样本,求得系统输出变量各阶模糊原点矩,并采用改进的Cornish-Fisher级数拟合得到状态变量的模糊概率分布及隶属度函数。以改进的IEEE33节点系统进行测试分析,说明文中方法的准确性、高效性和实用性。在此基础上,分析了变量模糊相关性对配电网运行状态波动的影响。Development of smart distribution network is accompanied by integration of large-scale photovoltaic(PV) generation, wind power generation and electric vehicles(EVs). To deal with the uncertainties and correlations of these new sources and loads, a probabilistic power flow method for distribution networks considering fuzzy correlation between input variables was proposed. The method established probabilistic models for uncertainty variables, adopted triangular fuzzy number to represent correlation coefficients, and used a modified three-point estimate method to calculate fuzzy probabilistic power flow of distribution networks. To incorporate fuzziness of correlation coefficients, fuzzy Nataf transformation and a modified Cornish-Fisher expansion were adopted to generate fuzzy-correlated samples and calculate fuzzy moments, fuzzy probabilistic distribution and fuzzy membership of state variables. Accuracy, effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method are verified by simulation results of a modified IEEE 33-bus system. The impacts of fuzzy correlation on the fluctuation of distribution systems are further studied.

关 键 词：模糊相关性 三角模糊数 模糊概率潮流 Nataf变换 三点估计法 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]