旅游高峰期交通流量的多时间尺度预测方法及应用  

Multi-time scale prediction method and application on tourism fastigium traffic flow

作　　者：李凌雁[1] 赵欣[1] 翁钢民[1] Li Lingyan;Zhao Xin;Weng Gangmin(School of Economics&Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao Hebei 066004,China)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学经济管理学院,河北秦皇岛066004

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2020年第3期721-725,共5页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：河北省社会科学基金项目(HB18GL072)。

摘　　要：对旅游交通需求进行准确的短时预测难度很大,其时空分布规律更加难以估计。为了解决该问题,提高预测精度,首先分析了旅游交通流量的多时间尺度可预测性,进而运用多时间尺度预测方法对旅游交通流量进行了预测。结果表明,模型预测性能良好、精度较高,从分类和分层的角度构建旅游交通多时间尺度预测模型、分析旅游交通流量分布和旅游交通流量动态分配,能够为旅游高峰期的道路交通运行态势快速评估和制定应急交通组织管理方案提供精确参考。It is very difficult to predict the short-time travel traffic demand and its temporal and spatial distribution.In order to solve this problem and improve the prediction accuracy,this paper analyzed the predictability of multi-time scale of tourism traffic flow,and then used the multi-time scale forecasting method to predict tourism traffic flow.The results show that the model has good prediction performance and high accuracy.From the perspective of classification and stratification,it constructed the multi-time scale prediction model of tourism traffic,and analyzed the distribution of tourism traffic flow and dynamic distribution of tourism traffic flow,which provide precision reference for the rapid assessment of road traffic operation situation in the peak travel season and the formulation of emergency traffic organization and management.

关 键 词：旅游高峰期 交通流量预测 可预测性 多时间尺度 

分 类 号：U495[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TP391[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]