预测模型法在油田二次开发中的应用  

Extension of Forecasting Model methods and the application in secondary development

作　　者：杨燕 仝可佳 张文静[3] 冯磊[3] Yang Yan;Kan Kejia;Zhang Wenjing;Feng Lei(National Key Laboratory of Continental Dynamics,Northwestern University,Shaanxi Xi’an710069;Department of Geology,Northwestern University,Shaanxi Xi’an 710069;Research Institute for Exploration and Development,Tarim Oilfield Branch,PetroChina,Xinjiang Kakuer 841000)

机构地区：[1]西北大学大陆动力学国家重点实验室,陕西西安710069 [2]西北大学地质学系,陕西西安710069 [3]中国石油塔里木油田分公司勘探开发研究院,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《云南化工》2020年第4期177-178,181,共3页Yunnan Chemical Technology

摘　　要：预测模型法是油气田可采储量标定的常用方法,目前此类方法均以模型对历史数据的拟合程度判断计算结果的可靠性,不同模型对同一历史数据均可能具有较好的拟合程度,这将对预测模型的选择带来较大的不确定性。根据预测模型自身参数与本构参数间的关系,提出以产油量峰值Qmax,峰值时间tm及峰值对应累油Npm作为模型特征参数组的概念,可通过对比模型特征参数组与油田实际特征参数组的关系,判断不同模型的拟合效果。通过M油田的计算实例表明,预测模型的特征参数组能够有效判断不同预测模型的拟合效果,推荐使用胡陈模型及胡陈张模型作为二次开发效果评价的方法,预测提高采收率为2.73%。研究结果对油田二次开发效果具有一定的理论参考和实际应用意义。Forecasting Model methods is the common approach to calibrate the recoverable reserves of oil and gas reservoir. The reliability of models is confirmed by the fitting degree between models and history data. However, in some cases, different model may have similar fitting effect to the same test data and this may lead to some uncertainty when select the forecast model. Based on the relationship between model parameters and the constitutive parameters of model, the concept of Model Characteristic Parameter group( CPG) is presented, which is comprised of peak oil production rate, Peak arrived time and its corresponding cumulative oil. By comprising with the CPG of model and CPG of field, the fitting effect of different models can easily distinguish. Example of M oilfield showed that the CPG of forecasting model is effective. Also, the HC model and HCZ model are recommended to evaluate the effect of secondary development of M oilfield and the prediction EOR is 2.73%, which may have some theoretical and practical value for the study of secondary development of oilfields.

关 键 词：预测模型法 扩展 应用 M油田 二次开发 

分 类 号：TE122.2[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]