台山晚稻天气指数保险纯费率厘定方法的比较与选择  

Comparison and Selection of Methods for Determining Net Premium Rate of Taishan Late Rice Weather Index

作　　者：余兴湛 刘升源 黄亦青 杨锦青 YU Xingzhan;LIU Shengyuan;HUANG Yiqing;YANG Jinqing(Meteorological Bureau of Taishan City,Taishan,Guangdong 529200)

机构地区：[1]广东省台山市气象局,广东台山529200

出　　处：《热带农业科学》2020年第3期127-132,共6页Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture

基　　金：江门气象局科技项目“台山天气农业天气指数保险研究”(No.201712);“台山气候与常见儿科呼吸道疾病的关系研究”(No.201807)。

摘　　要：为找出更合适确定台山晚稻天气指数保险纯费率的方法,采用回归方程模拟法,根据台山市1987~2016年晚稻实际产量和台山国家气象观测站的相关气象资料,分离出晚稻的趋势产量和气象产量,利用气象产量和气象因子建立多元逐步回归模型,求出晚稻拟合产量,再利用拟合产量数据建立Normal、Gamma和Weibull参数模型分布进行分析比较。研究表明:Normal分布模型最适合台山晚稻产量确定,台山晚稻天气指数保险纯费率为3.47%,毛保险费率为5.03%,比目前当地现行的水稻毛保险费率4%偏高1.03%,证明本地的水稻毛保险费率偏低。本研究减少了当前台山水稻农业保险中存在的不足,为完善水稻政策性农业保险方案提供技术支持。In order to find out a more suitable method to determine the net premium rate of weather index of late rice in Taishan, this study used regression equation simulation method to separate the trend yield and meteorological yield of late rice according to the actual yield of late rice from 1987 to 2016 in Taishan City and the relevant meteorological data of Taishan national meteorological observation station, and used the meteorological yield and meteorological factors to establish a multiple stepwise regression model to find the fitting of late rice. Then, the normal, gamma and Weibull parameter models were established to analyze and compare the yield by fitting production data. The results showed that the normal distribution model was most suitable for determining the yield of Taishan late rice, and the net insurance rate of Taishan late rice weather index was 3.47%,the gross insurance rate was 5.03%, which was 1.03% higher than the current 4% of the local gross insurance rate, which proved that the local gross insurance rate of rice was lower. This study reduced the deficiencies in the current Taishan rice agricultural insurance and provided technical support for improving the rice policy agricultural insurance program.

关 键 词：晚稻 天气指数保险 纯费率 厘定方法 

分 类 号：S511.33[农业科学—作物学]