政策供需偏移测评模型构建及实证——基于广度与深度扩展的政策量化研究  

The construction and an empirical study of the policy supply and demand migration test model --A quantitative research on policies based on expansion of breadth and depth

作　　者：徐德英[1] Xu Deying(School of Management Science and Engineering,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《科研管理》2020年第4期64-74,共11页Science Research Management

基　　金：山东省社科基金规划研究项目(青年项目):“多维主体联动与信息化驱动下山东省低碳经济发展的空间溢出”(17DGLJ03);山东省高等学校人文社科计划一般项目:“信息化驱动下山东省高技术产业协同创新发展影响机理与路径优化研究”(J17RA089);山东财经大学青年优秀人才支持计划(2019-2021)。

摘　　要：基于微观层面创新创业政策实施实际与预期差异分析,运用区位理论、相似性理论,拓展政策偏移深度与广度内涵,构建政策供需偏移测评机制与模型。以角度离差表征偏移广度、以相对距离表征偏移深度构建政策偏移指数,并以偏移指数与偏移环境的二维向量测度政策供需偏移度,进一步借鉴皮尔逊相关性检验思想提出政策供需偏移程度判别准则,辅以数理实证该模型满足政策供需实际偏移的相关特性。在此基础上对政策文本进行梳理与量化分析,提出包括资金、人才、研发、服务、生产制造、新产品及技术引进与扩散在内的创新创业二级政策要素体系并实证。研究指出政策供需偏移测评模型可有效进行政策要素深度量化与对比剖析,助于从顶层设计视角提升政策调节精准度。实证显示,整体上北京市各类科技企业在创新创业中的政策需求大于供给,且具有极强的技术与新产品市场政策扶持需求,尤其小微、民营、合资及外企对各要素类创新创业政策的供需差异较大,而已有资金、研发及人才类政策较好匹配各类科技企业的政策需求。综合实际,衍生发展模式、科技工业园区模式及集群式发展模式成为北京市科技企业加强新产品市场拓展、技术引进与知识扩散的可行路径;借助企业上云,共建各类资源交互平台,对于提升政策信息共享、辅导与监管水平具有深远意义。Based on the investigation and analysis of innovation and entrepreneurship policies from the micro-view, the differences between actual and expected implementation are studied, and the deeper relationship between them is analyzed. In order to measuring their distance more visible and quantifiable, the clearly distinction between policy supply and demand is pointed out, and the location theory, similarity theory and Pearson correlation test are used in the whole study.Most importantly, the migration mechanism and measurement model are constructed to analyze the relationship and differences between policy supply and actual demand, while expanding the connotation of the policy breadth and depth.In the model, the policy migration index is constructed, while the migration breadth is denoted by angle deviation and the migration depth is denoted by relative distance. Then the environment variables together with this index were used to measure the offset of policy supply and demand. Furthermore, the criterion is proposed to determine the policy migration degree based on Pearson correlation test theory. At last, the model is proved to satisfy the actual migration characteristics of policy supply and demand.Based on the above studies, the innovation and entrepreneurship policy text is sorted out, and further quantitative analysis is done. As the result, the system of innovation and entrepreneurship policy is constructed, and the effective measure scale is designed, which contains seven first-degree elements and twenty-one branches. While the first-degree elements are capital, talents, research and development, services environment, manufacturing, new products market, technology transfer and knowledge diffusion. All these are used as an empirical to validate the model and identify the policy mediation priorities.The research points out that the model can be used to do more in-depth quantitative research and comparative analysis effectively, and can help to improve the policy adjustment precision from the top-level design vi

关 键 词：政策偏移 广度内涵扩展 深度内涵扩展 定量分析 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济] F276