城市建设用地的潜在生态适宜性评价--以上海市宝山区为例  

Potential ecological suitability evaluation of urban construction land:A case study in Baoshan District, Shanghai

作　　者：何宗菲 於家 陈芸 温家洪 尹占娥 HE Zongfei;YU Jia;CHEN Yun;WEN Jiahong;YIN Zhan’e(School of Environmental and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;CSIRO Land and Water,GPO Box 1666,Canberra ACT2601,Australia)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海200234 [2]澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织(CSIRO)水土研究所(Land&Water),堪培拉ACT 2601,澳大利亚

出　　处：《资源科学》2020年第3期558-569,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41201548);国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA105);上海师范大学科研发展基金项目(KF201908,KF201852)。

摘　　要：在城市快速扩张的区域,传统基于土地利用现状的生态适宜性评价方法在支持未来城市建设用地的开发决策方面具有一定的局限性。本文首次提出了城市建设用地潜在生态适宜性评价的概念和方法,把模拟预测得到的未来城市土地利用分布作为重要因子加入生态适宜性评价框架,生成更适合于未来城市建设用地规划决策的潜在生态适宜性评价结果。以上海市宝山区为例,空间化展现城市用地扩张背景下的2050年城市建设用地潜在生态适宜性分布情况,并与传统生态适宜性评价结果进行空间量化对比分析。分析结果表明,潜在生态适宜性评价有效降低了不适宜及较不适宜开发用地与未来城市建成区重叠度较高的矛盾(分别由9.74%和22.7%降低为0.0%和14.5%),能更好地匹配城市开发边界规划和生态空间规划,突显未来发展过程中的生态保护重点区域。本文实证了新方法的科学性和有效性,该方法能更好地为城市扩张背景下的生态城市规划提供决策支持。Traditional ecological suitability evaluation methods based on current land use status have their limitation in supporting development decision for urban construction land in rapid urbanexpansion regions. This article first proposed the concept and method of potential ecological suitability evaluation of urban construction land. The method highlights the predicted future urban land-use distribution that is regarded as an important factor in the ecological suitability evaluation framework, and generates the evaluation result that is suitable for future planning and decision making of urban construction land. This study took Baoshan District, Shanghai Municipality, China as the study area and presented the spatial distribution of ecological suitability of urban construction land in 2050 under the background of urban expansion. The result was compared with the traditional ecological suitability evaluation results. The comparison revealed that potential ecological suitability evaluation can effectively reduce the high overlaps of the lands unsuitable or moderately unsuitable to be developed and the future urban buildup areas(reducing the overlap from 9.74% and 22.7% to 0.0% and 14.5%). It can match the urban development boundary planning and ecological space planning better and highlights the key protected ecological regions in future development. The case study proved the soundness and effectiveness of the new evaluation method, which can provide better decision supporting for ecological urban planning under the background of urban expansion.

关 键 词：潜在生态适宜性评价 城市建设用地 城市扩张 元胞自动机 上海市宝山区 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程]