Probabilistic Project Duration Estimation Based on Uncertainty of Linkage between Activities  

作　　者：Seon-Gyoo Kim Junyoung Kim 

机构地区：[1]Department of Architectural Engineering,Kangwon National University,Chuncheon200-701,South Korea [2]Institute of Technology,Mooyoung Construction Management Co.Ltd.,Seoul,South Korea

出　　处：《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》2020年第4期214-225,共12页土木工程与建筑（英文版）

摘　　要：Generally,one of the most difficult works at scheduling is to estimate the duration of activities and linkages between them because the possibility that the duration and linkages could be exposed to the uncertainties is very high.When estimating project duration,therefore,the probabilistic estimation of the duration as well as the probabilistic estimation of the linkages between activities should be considered concurrently.The Project Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT)that is considered to be one of the most popular techniques applied for the probabilistic estimation of a project duration cannot consider the uncertainties of the linkages because it only estimates the probabilistic duration limited to“FS0”relationship.The purpose of this study is to propose the new method,the Probabilistic Linkage Evaluation Technique(PLET),for probabilistically estimating the project duration based on the probabilistic estimation of the BDM’s relationships,and also provide more wide and various probabilistic information about the project duration.

关 键 词：PDM BDM LINKAGE OVERLAP PROBABILISTIC evaluation 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]