有关朝核前景的若干焦点问题评析  

Some Key Questions about the DPRK Nuclear Issue

作　　者：林利民[1] 程亚克 Lin Limin;Cheng Yake

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院 [2]中国现代国际关系研究院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2020年第3期1-10,56,65,共12页

基　　金：国际关系学院“国际安全治理与新型国际关系”课题阶段性成果,项目号3262016T01。

摘　　要：朝鲜核问题困扰国际社会已20余年。一直以来,国际社会如何看朝核问题及其演变趋势,见仁见智。要把握朝核问题及其演变趋势,就需准确认识与之相关的一些焦点问题,包括朝是否会完全弃核?美是否会以武力解决朝核问题?朝在美韩等搞"极限施压"的情形下会否"崩溃"?如何评估朝核武开发"危害性",它是否会引起东北亚核扩散?如何评价"六方会谈"?国际社会"默认"朝鲜实际拥核国身份的可能性有多大?等等。正是围绕这些焦点问题存在不同看法,才导致国际社会对朝核问题及其演变趋势的不同看法以及截然不同的应对方案。本文认为:在未来相当长一个历史时段内,朝鲜不太可能弃核;美国也不太可能动用武力迫朝弃核;无论美韩等如何对朝搞"极限施压",朝都可以生存下去,保住其现有核武器;受多种因素影响,日韩搞"核跟进"的可能性也不大。基于这些"已知条件",一个直接的逻辑结论是:朝将继续维持其实际拥核地位,国际社会将不得不在"默认"朝实际拥核国身份的基础上,与一个拥核的朝鲜打交道。凡此种种,将给重启"六方会谈"带来新的可能性。The DPRK nuclear issue has been a headache in the international community for over two decades. To better understand the issue, we need to address some key questions. Would DPRK fully denuclearize itself? Would the US resort to a military solution? Would DPRK "collapse" under "maximum pressure" from the US and its alliances? How to evaluate the "damage" of the DPRK nuclear development and whether it would lead to proliferation across Northeast Asia? How to evaluate the role of the Six-Party Talks? To what extent would the international community "acquiesce" DPRK’s fait-accompli status as a nuclear power? Different views breed different, sometimes contrasting, solutions. This paper argues that DPRK would not likely denuclearize itself in the foreseeable future, nor would the US resort to a military solution. It would survive and keep its existing nuclear weapons under "maximum pressure" and it would become a fait-accompli nuclear power and the international community has to "acquiesce" this fact. This creates possibilities for the resumption of the Six-Party Talks.

关 键 词：朝鲜核问题 崩溃论 “默认”论 极限施压 六方会谈 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系]