2004-2018年湖北省丙型肝炎流行特征与趋势  

Epidemiological characteristics and trends of hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018

作　　者：吴景涛 宇传华 王雷[2] 胡樱 WU Jing-tao;YU Chuan-hua;WANG Lei;HU Ying(Global Health Institute,School of Health Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,China;Institute of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention,Hubei Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学健康学院全球健康研究中心,武汉430071 [2]湖北省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治研究所,武汉430079

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2020年第4期451-455,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81773552).

摘　　要：目的分析2004-2018年湖北省丙型肝炎(简称丙肝)的流行特征,掌握丙肝发病状况,为丙肝防控提供科学的意见和建议。方法研究收集传染病报告信息管理系统中丙肝报告病例的数据,对其进行描述性分析并使用时间序列模型进行分析预测。结果丙肝发病率呈持续增加趋势,从2004年的1.82/105增加到2018年的18.51/105,年平均增长率为18.01%。各年龄段丙肝发病率随年份的增加整体呈上升趋势,在同一年份,发病率随年龄段的增加而出现先上升后下降的趋势,在60~70岁年龄段达到顶峰。丙肝的新发患者中排行前三的职业依次为农民、家务及待业、离退休人员,其总占比超过80%。通过时间序列模型预测,如果不采取有效控制措施,5年后丙肝发生率可超过24.88/105。结论丙肝发病率持续升高,发病有较明显的人群、空间分布特点,需要密切关注并且针对性地采取有效措施,减少疾病的发生和感染。Objective This study aims to know the incidence of hepatitis C and provide scientific opinions and suggestions for prevention and control of hepatitis C through analyzing the characteristics of hepatitis C in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2018.Methods Data of hepatitis C reported cases in the infectious disease report information management system were collected,analyzed and predicted by time series model.Results The incidence of hepatitis C continued to increase,from 1.82/10~5 in 2004 to 18.51/10~5 in 2018,with an average annual growth rate of 18.01%.The incidence of hepatitis C in all age groups increased from 2004 to 2018.In the same year,the incidence rate increased initially and then decreased with the elder age group.The peak was in 60-70 age group.Among the new diagnosed patients with hepatitis C,the top three occupations were farmers,housework and unemployed,retired people,accounting for more than 80%of the total.According to the prediction of time series model,the incidence of hepatitis C could exceed 24.88/10~5 after 5 years if no effective control measures were taken.Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C is still rising,and it has significant population and spatial distribution pattern.It is necessary to pay attention and take effective measures to reduce the incidence of new infections and diseases onset.

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 流行特征 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]