未来气候变化对海南橡胶树春季物候期的影响  

Impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages of rubber tree in Hainan,China

作　　者：李宁[1,2,3] 白蕤 伍露 李玮 陈淼[1,2,3] 陈歆 范长华[1,2,3] 杨桂生 LI Ning;BAI Rui;WU Lu;LI Wei;CHEN Miao;CHEN Xin;FAN Chang hua;YANG Gui sheng(Environment and Plant Protection Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Haikou 571101,China;National Agricultural Experimental Station for Agricultural Environment,Danzhou 571737,Hainan,China;Danzhou Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Agro Environment,Ministry of Agriculture,Danzhou 571737,Hainan,Chi na;Hainan Institute of Meteorological Science,Haikou 570203,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院环境与植物保护研究所,海口571101 [2]国家农业环境儋州观测实验站,海南儋州571737 [3]农业部儋州农业环境科学观测实验站,海南儋州571737 [4]海南省气象科学研究所,海口570203 [5]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2020年第4期1241-1249,共9页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目(317236,319QN276);中国热带农业科学院基本科研业务费专项(1630042020006)资助。

摘　　要：为研究未来气候变化对海南岛橡胶树春季物候期(第一蓬叶展叶期和春花期)的影响,以国内外关于橡胶树物候期量化研究和橡胶树观测试验数据为基础,结合作物生长钟模型,建立橡胶树春季物候期模型,开发成计算机软件RubberSP并进行适宜性评价。在此基础上,通过贝叶斯模型平均法(BMA)结合耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)多模式数据集中的5个大气环流模式(GCMs),分别在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景下,以1986-2017年为基准时段,预估2020-2099年气候变化对橡胶树春季物候期的可能影响。结果表明:RubberSP的模拟精度较高,模拟值与实测值的决定系数R^2为0.73~0.87,均方根误差RMSE为3.26~4.15 d,归一化均方根误差NRMSE为3.4%~7.4%。BMA方法可以有效地处理单一GCMs带来的不确定性问题,较好地反映出气温变化趋势;预估RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,海南岛至21世纪末较基准时段分别升温超过0.3、1.0和2.5℃。在未来气候情景下,春季物候期出现日序提前,产胶量提高的可能性变大。日序等值线均向西北方向移动,海南岛橡胶树种植最适宜区有向西北方向扩大的可能。第一蓬叶展叶期的空间差异性变大,春花期则略微变小。橡胶树春季物候期在未来3种情景下提前或推迟的变化幅度随RCP情景下升温的幅度而变化,RCP2.6最平缓,RCP8.5最剧烈。To explore the impacts of future climate change on spring phenology stages(first leaf storey expansion stage,spring flowering stage)of rubber tree in Hainan Island,we established a rubber tree spring phenology simulation model based on the crop clock model and developed a computer software RubberSP.The model simulation accuracy was examined with experimental observed phenology data.Five global climate models(GCMs)from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)were integrated using Bayesian Model averaging method(BMA)to predict the impacts of climate change on the spring phenology of rubber tree in 2020-2099(relative to 1986-2017)under climate scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,respectively.The results showed that the RubberSP model had good simulation accuracy,with the determination coefficient(R^2)values ranging between 0.73-0.87,the root mean square error(RMSE)ranging from 3.26 to 4.15 d,and the normalized root mean square error(NRMSE)of 3.4%-7.4%between measured and simulated phenology stages.The uncertainty of a single GCM could be avoided by BMA method,which could better reflect the change trend of temperature.Temperature of Hainan Island in the end of 21 century,under the scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,would increase by more than 0.3,1.0 and 2.5℃compared with the baseline,respectively.The spring phenology stages would appear earlier and yield would increase in the future climate scenario.The time isoline of spring phenology stages would move forward to northwest,which indicated that most suitable area for rubber tree plantation in Hainan Island would expand to the northwest.The spatial difference of the first leaf storey expansion stage would be more evident,but not for spring flowering stage.The amplitude of rubber tree spring phenology variations was closely related to the increases of temperature under different RCP scenarios,with the most apparent change under RCP8.5 scenario and most mild change under RCP2.6 scenario.

关 键 词：气候变化 作物模型 物候期 橡胶树 贝叶斯模型平均 

分 类 号：S794.1[农业科学—林木遗传育种]