湖南省县域人口与经济差异测度研究  

Study on the Measurement of Population and Economic Differences in the Countries of Hunan Province

作　　者：靳海攀 胡振华[1] JIN Haipan;HU Zhenhua(Business School,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期65-74,共10页Journal of Hunan University of Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目“房地产征用补偿极端争议的组合性均衡评价及其实验研究”(71171203);中南大学研究生基金资助项目“湖南省‘精准扶贫’重点项目布局调查研究”(2018dcyj030)。

摘　　要：基于2007-2016年湖南省100个县域人口与经济数据,采用人口-经济增长弹性、地理集中度、协调度指数、重心模型、ESDA等方法,系统分析了湖南省人口与经济的协调关系、空间集聚程度、重心偏移、空间自相关性等特征,探讨湖南省人口、经济变化及时空协调。结果表明,湖南省经济对人口存在事后调节作用,各分区间存在差异;人口、经济均呈现"东密西疏、核心-外围圈层、低等级城市连片"的分布特征;经济对人口流动存在虹吸效应,区位劣势、资源枯竭型县域人口外流较显著;研究时段内,核心城市聚集作用渐趋增强,人口流动具有经济导向性;人口与经济重心均向东北偏移,且经济重心移幅大于人口重心移幅。空间自相关分析显示,人口呈现高-高、低-低集聚态势,经济则呈现低-低集聚态势。This paper explores the flow trend and spatial distribution of the population and economy in Hunan Province through a systematic analysis on the coordination relationship, the degree of spatial agglomeration, the shift of focus, and the spatial auto-correlation of the population and economic development, using the methods of population-economic growth elasticity, geographic concentration index, coordination index, barycenter model and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA), based on the data in 100 counties in Hunan Province from 2007 to 2016. The results show that the population growth lagged behind economic growth, and the sub-regions had different characteristics;population and economies presented an unbalanced distribution situation of"dense in the east, sparse in the west, high in the center, low in the periphery, low-grade counties continuous distribution".The economy had siphon effect on the flow of the population, the counties that lacked location advantages or resource-exhausted suffered was more obvious. From the spatial evolution pattern of population and economy, both the economic agglomeration of core cities and the economic orientation of population mobility in the region were enhanced;the population and economic center of gravity both moved to the northeast, and the economic center of gravity magnitude moved more than the population center. The global Moran’s I index and local LISA map analysis showed that the population and economic distribution of Hunan Province was more obvious, the population was high-high(H-H), low-low(L-L) agglomeration, and the economy exhibits low-low(L-L) agglomeration.

关 键 词：湖南省 人口 经济 分异 空间集聚 协调发展 探索性空间数据分析 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]