运用实物期权法对林业碳汇项目的价值评估  

Evaluating Forestry Carbon Sink Project with Real Option Method

作　　者：丁华[1] 程琴 Ding Hua;Cheng Qin(Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2020年第5期139-143,147,共6页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

摘　　要：林业投资项目具有典型的收益不确定性、投资不可逆性和管理灵活性等特点,需要选择合理适用的决策方法。采用传统净现值法,对林业投资项目价值评估忽略项目本身的期权特性,造成决策发生偏差。考虑到林业项目的期权特性,采用传统收益法和B-S理论结合的方法,构建价值评估模型,并引入具体案例,应用模型评估项目的整体价值。结果表明:采用传统收益法进行价值评估,低估了林业碳汇项目的价值;在模型的构建中将传统的收益法同实物期权相结合,以碳汇价格为重要依据,对波动率进行修正,使得评估模型适用于林业碳汇项目,对项目的价值评估更加科学合理。Forestry investment project is characterized by typical uncertainty of return,irreversibility of investment and flexibility of management.The option characteristic of the project itself is ignored,and then resulting in the deviation of the decision when the traditional net present value method is used to evaluate the value of forestry investment projects.Considering the option characteristics of forestry projects,the method of combining the traditional income method with B-S theory is adopted to construct the value evaluation model,and specific cases are introduced to evaluate the overall value of the project.The value of forestry carbon sink project is underestimated by the traditional income method;the combination of the traditional income method and the real option theory is selected to construct model,and the fluctuation rate is corrected according to the carbon sink price,which can make the evaluation model more suitable to the forestry carbon sink project,and the evaluation of project value is more scientific and reasonable.

关 键 词：林业碳汇 实物期权 B-S定价模型 

分 类 号：S220.65[农业科学—农业机械化工程]