Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project  

作　　者：Dabang JIANG Dong SI Xianmei LANG 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),Beijing 100029 [2]CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences,Beijing 100101 [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049

出　　处：《Journal of Meteorological Research》2020年第2期252-263,共12页气象学报（英文版）

基　　金：Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600704);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41421004 and 41875104)。

摘　　要：Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data,this study evaluates the prediction of East Asian summer climate during 1959–2016 undertaken by the CESM(Community Earth System Model)large-ensemble initialized decadal prediction(CESM-DPLE)project.The results demonstrate that CESM-DPLE can reasonably capture the basic features of the East Asian summer climate and associated main atmospheric circulation patterns.In general,the prediction skill is quite high for surface air temperature,but less so for precipitation,on the interannual timescale.CESM-DPLE reproduces the anomalies of mid-and highlatitude atmospheric circulation and the East Asian monsoon and climate reasonably well,all of which are attributed to the teleconnection wave train driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO).A transition into the warm phase of the AMO after the late 1990s decreased the geopotential height and enhanced the strength of the monsoon in East Asia via the teleconnection wave train during summer,leading to excessive precipitation and warming over East Asia.Altogether,CESM-DPLE is capable of predicting the summer temperature in East Asia on the interannual timescale,as well as the interdecadal variations of East Asian summer climate associated with the transition of AMO phases in the late 1990s,albeit with certain inadequacies remaining.The CESM-DPLE project provides an important resource for investigating and predicting the East Asian climate on the interannual and decadal timescales.

关 键 词：Community Earth System Model(CESM) large-ensemble initialized DECADAL prediction(DPLE) CLIMATE PREDICTION East Asian summer CLIMATE DECADAL variation 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]