东北亚“核威慑效应弱化”及其应对思考  

On the Weakening of Nuclear Deterrence Effect in Northeast Asia and Its Countermeasures

作　　者：张景全 Zhang Jingquan

机构地区：[1]山东大学东北亚学院,威海264209 [2]山东大学国际问题研究院,威海264209

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2020年第3期74-90,I0003,I0004,共19页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：吉林省软科学项目“核威慑边际效应及其视域下的吉林省核安全防护研究”(编号:JJKH20180267SK);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“海洋政治学的中国话语构建研究”(编号:19YJAGJW009)。

摘　　要：东北亚地区呈现的"核威慑效应弱化",对地区安全构成消极影响。东北亚以及美国的核威慑投入在持续,美对韩日核保护,韩日谈论核武器,朝鲜发展核武器,同时萨德部署与《中导条约》失效降低了中俄的核威慑能力,核传统的遏止功能、保护能力与可信性降低,核扩散趋势增强,核威慑悖论现象显现。"核安全保护不完全"、核拥有国数量增加,是探讨"核威慑效应弱化"成因的有益路径。建立新时代的核理论,揭示并审慎研究核武器化与民用化并存风险,建立核民用合作机制并推进建立涵盖核的武器与民用的合作机制,以核问题的处理为契机在国家层面上构建东北亚命运共同体,以及在地方与个人层面推进核文化教育与核防护演练合作,都是应对"核威慑效应弱化"的有益思考。The effect of nuclear deterrence in Northeast Asia is weakening which has a negative impact on regional security.Although the investment in nuclear deterrence is going on,traditional capabilities and credibility of nuclear stopping and nuclear protection have decreased.Consequently,the trend of nuclear proliferation is growing and the paradox of nuclear deterrence appears.The weakening of nuclear deterrence effect in Northeast Asia is manifested as follows:the US continues to offer nuclear protection for South Korea and Japan;South Korea and Japan dream about owning nuclear weapons;and North Korea develops nuclear weapons.The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense(THAAD)and invalid Middle Range Guided Missile Treaty reduce China and Russia’s nuclear deterrent abilities.One cause behind the deteriorating nuclear stopping ability,the shaky credibility of nuclear protection and the unstoppable nuclear proliferation is the incomplete nuclear safety protection and the increase of nu-clear countries.This paper reflects on establishing a nuclear theory for the new era and studies the coexistence of nuclear weaponization and nuclear civilianization.The nuclear cooperation mechanism should start from civilian sector then move on to weapon area.Nuclear is an opportunity for cooperation,and the weakening of nuclear deterrence effect can be dealt by building a community with shared future among Northeast Asian countries and through promoting cooperation in nuclear culture education and nuclear protection drills at the individual and local level.

关 键 词：核威慑效应弱化 核威慑 东北亚安全 应对策略 

分 类 号：D820[政治法律—政治学]