特朗普政府的极限“台湾牌”:表现、意图与影响  

The Ultimate Taiwan Card of the Trump’s Administration:Performance,Intention and Effect

作　　者：杨泽军 Yang Zejun

机构地区：[1]南京大学中国南海研究协同创新中心,南京210019 [2]南京大学台湾研究所,南京210019

出　　处：《亚太安全与海洋研究》2020年第3期91-109,I0004,共20页Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国特色的国际关系与外交理论创新研究”(编号:08JZD0038)。

摘　　要：特朗普政府上台以来,打破中美多年来的外交惯例,频频出台公然背离一个中国政策的法案,有悖一个中国政策的动作不断,将"台湾牌"打至极限。特朗普政府"以台遏华"的战略企图十分明显,借此争取在与中国的博弈中占据主导地位,为中国稳步推进国家发展制造麻烦。此举会形成强大的反噬力,不仅无法干扰中国实现国家统一和民族复兴的既定目标,相反只会加剧台海紧张局势,并可能导致两岸冲突,使台湾面临巨大的经济损失和两岸局势失控的双重风险。美国也将陷入进退两难的尴尬处境,既有悖于其国家利益和全球战略,不符合打"台湾牌"初衷,也可能助力其他次级大国趁机崛起,对美国的霸主地位形成挑战,使美国谋求自身利益最大化意图更加难以实现。Since Trump came into power,US government broke diplomatic practices between China and US lasting for years by issuing Acts regardless of One China Policy.It has played the Taiwan Card to its extreme.The Trump Administration obviously is trying to use Taiwan against China,in order to dominate the Sino-US power game and make trouble for China’s development.This is no good for the US,it will not stop China from national reunification and rejuvenation,on the contrary it will escalate the situation in Taiwan Strait,which probably will lead to conflicts.There will be double risks of Taiwan’s enormous economic loss and the cross-strait situation out of control.It will lead the US to a dilemma.The consequence will harm its national interests and global strategy,and will not fulfill its aim of playing Taiwan card in the first place.It may also help the rise of other powers challenging its dominance.The US may not be able to maximize its interests.

关 键 词：特朗普政府 台湾牌 中美关系一个中国政策 

分 类 号：D871.2[政治法律—政治学]