老年患者医院获得性肺炎风险评估模型的构建  

Construction of risk assessment model of hospital-acquired pneumonia in elderly patients

作　　者：赵霞[1] 王力红[1] 魏楠 张京利[1] 马文晖[1] 赵会杰[1] 韩叙[1] ZHAO Xia;WANG Lihong;WEI Nan;ZHANG Jingli;MA Wenhui;ZHAO Huijie;HAN Xu(Hospital Infection Management Division,Xuanwu Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学宣武医院医院感染管理处,北京100053 [2]首都医科大学公共卫生学院

出　　处：《中国感染与化疗杂志》2020年第3期271-276,共6页Chinese Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy

基　　金：北京市属医院科研培育计划项目(PG2019018)。

摘　　要：目的构建老年患者医院获得性肺炎(HAP)风险因素评估模型,筛选HAP的老年高危人群。方法采用logistic回归分析,进行危险因素识别,建立HAP风险因素评估体系;根据β值对各危险因素进行赋值,建立感染风险因素评估模型。结果年龄≥70岁、神经系统疾病、恶性肿瘤、血液病、曾住ICU、本次住院手术次数≥3次以及先前使用抗菌药物是HAP的独立危险因素,HAP风险评估模型在建模组和验证组数据中受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.73和0.77。结论老年患者HAP的风险评估模型具有较好的风险识别效度,可对老年患者中HAP的高危人群进行有效识 别。Objective To construct a risk assessment model of hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) in elderly patients for screening the patients at high risk of HAP.Methods A logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors and assigned a value to each risk factor according to its β value so as to establish the risk assessment model for HAP.Results Patient age ≥70 years,neurological diseases,malignant tumor,hematological malignancy,prior ICU stay,surgical operation ≥3 times during the index hospitalization,and prior antibiotic use were independent risk factors for HAP in elderly patients.The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the established risk assessment model was 0.73 in modeling group and 0.77 in verification group.Conclusions The risk assessment model is effective in discriminating the patients at high risk of HAP in elderly patients.

关 键 词：老年患者 医院获得性肺炎 危险因素 风险评估模型 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]