海河流域近60a降水极值的频率分析及时空分布特征  

Frequency analysis and its spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation extremes in the Haihe River Basin during 1951-2010

作　　者：邵月红 刘玲 刘俊杰[2] 吴俊梅 SHAO Yuehong;LIU Ling;LIU Junjie;WU Junmei(School of Hydrology and Water Resources,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Anhui Climate Center,Hefei 230031,China;Kunshan Meteorology Bureau,Kunshan 215300,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,江苏南京210044 [2]安徽省气候中心,安徽合肥230031 [3]昆山市气象局,江苏昆山215300

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第2期381-391,共11页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：淮河流域气象中心开放项目暨安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室开放基金项目(HRM201702);江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20141001)。

摘　　要：以海河流域为研究区域,利用MK和F检验对站点的年最大日降雨序列进行趋势、突变和跳跃分析。基于水文气象分区线性矩法进行一致区的划分、最优分布的选择和降水极值的频率估计值计算,并分析其空间分布特征。结果表明:MK趋势和突变检验显示只有8个站点(22.9%)呈现显著下降趋势,通过了信度为0.1的显著性水平检验,特别是京津唐区域具有显著的下降趋势,突变时段主要发生在1980-1990年。均值和方差的跳跃性显示大部分站点都呈现出显著的向下跳跃,主要分布在流域的滦河子流域和北三河水系;趋势和跳跃的综合分析能够对降水极值有可能引起的旱涝灾害进行更全面合理的判断。不同重现期下的频率估计值的空间分布总体趋势一致,从东南到西北、从沿海到内陆逐渐减少,并与地形表现出很好的一致性;降水极值空间分布的中心主要集中在滦河子流域的遵化和青龙附近;大部分站点50 a一遇的估计值和AMP序列的最大观测值能够保持较好的一致性,间接反映了估计值的合理准确性。This study investigates the trend and mutation analysis of extreme precipitation based on the annual maximum of daily precipitation( AMP) data in the Haihe River Basin during the period of 1951 to 2010.The frequency estimates and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation can be further calculated and analyzed by using the Regional L-Moments method described in this paper. The results indicate that the AMP series of most sites exhibit no linear trends and mutation at the 90% confidence level;however,there is a distinctive decrease trend among the remaining sites with significant confidence,especially in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region.The shift analysis of the mean and variance shows that the AMP of most sites exhibits a linear decrease shift,which is distributed in the Luanhe River and Beisanhe River sub-basins.The comprehensive analysis of the trend and shift provides a more reasonable judgment for the drought caused by extreme precipitation. The spatial patterns of the frequency estimates are similar to the different return periods,which showhigh agreement with the terrain.The quantile values gradually decrease from southeast to northwest,and from coastal to inland.The center of extreme precipitation mainly concentrated in the Zunhua and Qinglong stations of the Luanhe River sub-basin.Frequency estimates of the 50-year return period are in agreement with the maximum observations of the AMP series at most of the stations,which can provide a more quantitative and scientific basis for future decision making.

关 键 词：降水极值 线性矩法 水文气象一致区 频率估计值 时空特征 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]