基于广义生态群落的跨境电商软性供应链仿真分析  

Simulation Analysis of Soft Supply Chain in Cross-border E-commerce Based on the Theory of Generalized Ecological Community

作　　者：戴永辉[1] 魏农建[1] 袁莹 戴伟辉[3] DAI Yonghui;WEI Nongjian;YUAN Ying;DAI Weihui(School of Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China;Software School,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Management,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学工商管理学院,上海201620 [2]复旦大学软件学院,上海200433 [3]复旦大学管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《上海大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第3期107-117,共11页Journal of Shanghai University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2016BGL004);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题(2018BGL023)。

摘　　要：跨境电商供应链具有灵活多样的软性结构特征,传统的供应链建模仿真方法难以对其复杂变化特征进行有效的描述和分析。文章从广义生态群落理论的新视角出发,指出影响跨境电商软性供应链运行有5项可观测关键指标:商品品类数量、商品品类在架时长、新增用户数量、用户留存时长、购买转化率。通过对跨境电商平台生态群落的多Agent建模仿真分析,指出增加跨境电商平台及供应商收益的三种主要措施:提升单位时间内的新增用户数量,提升购买转化率,提升单位时间内新发布的商品品类数量。为跨境电商软性供应链的研究提供了有效的方法。Since the supply chain in cross-border E-commerce is featured with flexible and diverse soft structures,traditional methods of supply chain modeling and simulation can not effectively account for its complex changing characteristics.Based on a new perspective of the theory of generalized ecological community,it is found that five key observable factors influence the supply chain of cross-border E-commerce:the number of the types of goods,duration time on the shelf,the number of newly added users,duration of goods kept by users and the buy rate.A simulation analysis based on Multi-Agent modeling points out that there are three major measures to increase profit for cross-border E-commerce platform and suppliers:increasing the number of newly added users within unit time,increasing buy rate and increasing the number of the types of newly released goods within unit time.To sum,the study offers an effective method of researching cross-border soft supply chain.

关 键 词：跨境电子商务 供应链 生态群落 建模与仿真 

分 类 号：F752.1[经济管理—国际贸易]