上海地区大面积航班延误预警统计与气象服务质量评估  

Statistics of Weather-caused MDRS and Assessment of Meteorological Service in Shanghai

作　　者：胡伯彦[1] 冯雷[1] 陈志豪[1] 杨建芳 Hu Boyan;Feng Lei;Chen Zhihao;Yang Jianfang(East China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau,Shanghai 200335 China)

机构地区：[1]民航华东空管局,上海200335

出　　处：《中国民航飞行学院学报》2020年第3期50-54,59,共6页Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China

摘　　要：本文对2018年上海地区由天气引发的大面积航班延误预警(MDRS)进行统计,并评估了华东空管局空管中心气象席位全年预报服务质量,总结得到以下结论:上海地区全年因天气原因启动预警50次,其中黄色预警37次、橙色预警11次、红色预警2次。5月和7月预警次数较多,2月、10月、12月未启动预警。引发预警的天气类型包括雷雨、低云大雾、台风、冰雪,其中雷雨天气占比最高,其次为低云大雾天气。台风天气引发橙色或红色预警的概率最大。预警启动区域主要为浦东机场、虹桥机场、上海终端区、航路,其中终端区和航路MDRS预警全年占比74%。由天气引发的预警全年平均时长555分钟。气象部门针对预警提供的首份天气通报提前量平均为519分钟。2018年气象席位共发布天气通报2136份,日均发布5.85份。预报服务质量平均得分93.6,其中"准确"(100分)和"较准确"(75分)得分比例合计达97.2%。仅统计MDRS预警启动日,则平均得分84.2,"准确"和"较准确"得分比例合计为89.1%。This paper makes a statistical analysis of weather-caused Massive Delay Response System(MDRS)in Shanghai in 2018,and evaluates the meteorological service quality based on the quantitative score of meteorological seat in Air Traffic Control(ATC)center of East China Air Traffic Management Bureau(EC ATMB).The following conclusions are drawn:50 times MDRS are initiated in Shanghai for weather reasons,with yellow alert 37 times,orange alert 11 times,and twice red alert.In May and July,the number of MDRS alert was high,while none was launched in February,October and December.The weather that triggered MDRS include thunderstorm,low cloud/dense fog,typhoon and heavy snow,among which thunderstorm accounts for the highest proportion,followed by low cloud/dense fog.The MDRS alert start-up areas include Pudong Airport,Hongqiao Airport,Shanghai TRACON and routes,of which 74%are aimed at TRACON and routes all year round.The average time of weather-caused MDRS is 555 minutes,and the average advance time of the first weather notification provided for MDRS is 519 minutes.A total of 2136 weather notifications were issued by meteorological seats,with an average of 5.85 daily.The average score of meteorological service quality was 93.6,of which 97.2%was‘Accurate’(100 points)and‘Relative Accurate’(75 points),while the average score was 84.2 in all MDRS days,and the total percentage of‘accurate’and‘Relative accurate’score was 89.1%.

关 键 词：上海地区 大面积航班延误预警 天气影响 气象服务 

分 类 号：V355[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程] V321.21