经济增长中“净出口”作用如何被低估?——基于传统方法的修正、再测算与比较研究  

How Is the Role of"Net Exports"in Economic Growth Underestimated?Based on the Modification,Recalculation and Comparison of Traditional Methods

作　　者：刘梦 戴翔[2] Liu Meng;Dai Xiang(School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;Institute of Politics and Economics,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,210096 [2]南京审计大学政治与经济研究院,211815

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2020年第2期49-67,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“以‘一带一路’创新牵引中国区域产业转移、转型并高质量发展的机理、路径与政策研究”(71873030);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“习近平关于全球增长共赢链重要论述研究”(19FKSB023);教育部人文社科项目“知识产权保护影响出口贸易高质量发展的机制、效应及政策研究:技术—结构视角”(19YJA790016);江苏省高校人文社会科学校外研究基地“苏南资本市场研究中心”(2017ZSJD020)的资助。

摘　　要：在全球价值链分工条件下,以宏观经济恒等式为基础测度“净出口”对经济增长拉动率和贡献率的传统方法,由于存在忽略全球投入产出关联和假定各经济变量相互独立的局限,所得结果低估了“净出口”的真实作用水平。本文从全球价值链分工的特征事实出发,利用投入产出模型,在数理层面推导并构建了“净出口”对经济增长拉动率与贡献率的新测算框架。以中国经验数据为例,利用WIOD提供的最新基础数据,采用修正后和传统的两种方法,分别测算了2001—2014年中国“净出口”对经济增长的理论作用值和传统统计值。测算结果表明,传统方法确实低估了“净出口”对经济增长的拉动率和贡献率,而且伴随全球价值链分工深化,低估现象更普遍,更严重。对于已经并更将深度融入全球价值链分工体系的中国而言,正确评估“净出口”对经济增长真实拉动率和贡献率已是当务之急,尤其在中国出口增速面临巨大下滑压力的现实背景下,为避免错误测算结果在战略调整和经济政策的制定上可能产生的误导,亟需在统计体系上做出相应变革。这也是新时代构建高质量发展统计体系的应有要义之一。Under the conditions of global value chain division,due to the existence of ignoring the global input-output correlation and assuming that each economic variable is independent,the traditional method of measuring the driving rate and the contributing rate of the"net export"to economic growth based on the macroeconomic identity,which underestimate the real function of"net exports".Based on the characteristics and facts of global value chain division,this paper uses the input-output model to construct a new calculation framework for the net export's driving and contributing rate to economic growth.Taking China's empirical data as an example,using the latest basic data provided by WIOD,both the revised and traditional methods were used to calculate the theoretical effect and traditional statistical values of China's"net exports"on economic growth from 2001 to 2014.The calculation results show that the traditional method does indeed underestimate the driving and contributing rate of"net exports"to economic growth,and with the deepening of the division of global value chain,underestimation is more common and more serious.As for China,which has been more deeply integrated into the global value chain division system,it is imperative to correctly assess the true driving and contributing rate of"net exports"to economic growth.Especially under the realistic background of China's export growth facing huge downward pressure,in order to avoid misleading calculation results that may be misleading in strategic adjustment and economic policy formulation,it is urgent to make corresponding changes in the statistical system.It is also one of the essentials of building high-quality development statistics system in the new era.

关 键 词：经济增长 全球价值链 “净出口” 拉动率 贡献率 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]