非理性决策的烟叶家庭农场主画像——基于效率最优规模的实证分析  

Portrait of Tobacco Family Farmer with Irrational Decisions: An Empirical Analysis Based on Efficiency Optimal Scale

作　　者：余佳斌 杨翠苹 文锦涛 孙亚楠 张晓强 YU Jia-bin;YANG Cui-ping;WEN Jin-tao(Guiyang Branch Company,Guizhou Tobacco Company,Guiyang,Guizhou 550004;Henan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Zhengzhou,Henan 450002)

机构地区：[1]贵州省烟草公司贵阳市公司,贵州贵阳550004 [2]河南省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所,河南郑州450002 [3]河南农业大学烟草学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2020年第10期223-226,229,共5页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：贵州省烟草公司贵阳市公司科技项目(2018-08);河南农业大学博士科研启动基金项目(30601656)。

摘　　要：运用DEA模型对贵阳烟叶家庭农场的效率最优规模进行测算,用意愿规模和效率最优规模的比值衡量家庭农场主的非理性程度,并以此为因变量,借助多元线性回归模型进行影响因素分析。结果表明,对于意愿规模大于效率最优规模的家庭农场,家庭贷款能力、当前面积、烟叶均价、单位利润、成为家庭农场可能对收益的影响、单位雇工成本、烟草部门对基建的帮助程度、是否有财务管理记录这8个变量在不同统计水平上显著,能够较好地解释家庭农场主的非理性决策机制。结合当地情况和实证结果,对倾向做出非理性决策的农场主进行画像,并提出相应的政策建议,以找到具体的农场主并针对性地引导其做出有效率的生产规模决策,稳定当地烟叶生产的可持续发展。The DEA model was used to measure the efficiency optimal scale of the Guiyang tobacco family farm.The ratio of the scale of willingness and the optimal scale of efficiency was used to measure the irrationality of the family farmer,and it was used as the dependent variable of the multiple linear regression model to analyze the influencing factors.The results show that for family farms with a willingness scale greater than the optimal size,the family loan capacity,current area,average leaf price,unit profit,the impact of becoming a family farm on income,unit labor costs,the degree of tobacco sector assistance to infrastructure.Whether there are 8 variables of financial management records are significant at different statistical levels,which can better explain the irrational decision-making mechanism of family farmers.Based on local conditions and empirical results,make portraits of farmers who tend to make irrational decisions,and put forward corresponding policy recommendations to find specific farmers and guide them to make efficient production scale decisions to stabilize the local sustainable development of tobacco leaf production.

关 键 词：非理性决策 家庭农场主 效率最优规模 画像 

分 类 号：S-9[农业科学]