基于粗糙集与证据理论的交流接触器预期电寿命预测  

Expected Electrical Life Prediction of AC Contactor Based on Rough Set and Evidence Theory

作　　者：孙曙光 王锐雄 杜太行 王景芹[2] 崔景瑞 Sun Shuguang;Wang Ruixiong;Du Taihang;Wang Jingqin;Cui Jingrui(School of Artificial Intelligence Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China;State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学人工智能与数据科学学院,天津300130 [2]省部共建电工装备可靠性与智能化国家重点实验室(河北工业大学),天津300130

出　　处：《电工技术学报》2020年第10期2158-2169,共12页Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society

基　　金：河北省教育厅资助科研项目资助(ZD2016108)。

摘　　要：目前对低压电器电寿命预测的研究多集中在剩余电寿命预测,然而预测预期电寿命更能有效指导产品的使用与维护,并且提高系统服役期的可靠性。交流接触器初态特征在一定程度上能够反映个体电寿命的长短,由此提出一种基于粗糙集与证据理论的交流接触器预期电寿命预测方法。首先采用粗糙集理论并结合相关计算经二次筛选获取关键初态特征,然后利用主客观综合赋权法建立关键初态特征权重集,并基于属性条件密度建立验证样本关键初态特征的匹配度表,之后利用二者构建独立证据,运用证据理论进行证据融合,决策验证样本个体预期电寿命等级。经实测数据验证,在小子样情况下,该方法可定性评估交流接触器个体预期电寿命,预测效果良好。At present, the research on the electrical life prediction of low-voltage electrical apparatus mostly focuses on the residual electrical life prediction. However, predicting the expected electrical life is more effective in guiding the use and maintenance of products and improving the reliability of the system during service period. AC contactor’s initial state characteristics can reflect the length of the individual’s electrical life to a certain extent, so a method for predicting the expected electrical life of AC contactor based on rough set and evidence theory was proposed. Firstly, the rough set theory and corresponding calculation were used to obtain the key initial state characteristics through twice screening. Secondly, the weight set of key initial state characteristics was established by subjective and objective comprehensive weighting method and the matching degree table of verification sample’s key initial state characteristics was established based on the attribute condition density. Finally, the independent evidence was constructed by the matching degree table and weight set, then evidence theory was used to fuse evidences and decide the individual’s expected electrical life grade of verification sample. The measured data proves that in the case of small samples, the method can qualitatively evaluate the expected electrical life of the AC contactor and the prediction effect is good.

关 键 词：交流接触器 粗糙集理论 属性条件密度 证据理论 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TM572.2[电气工程—电器]