基于DEMATEL/ISM的“三高”油气井井喷事故致因模型研究  

Research on Causative Model of “Three High” Oil and Gas Well Blowout Accident Based on DEMATEL/ISM

作　　者：吴德松[1] Wu Desong(SINOPEC Qingdao Research Institute of Safety Engineering,Shandong,Qingdao,266071)

机构地区：[1]中国石化青岛安全工程研究院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2020年第3期5-11,共7页Safety Health & Environment

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0809300);中国石化科技部项目(317019-2)。

摘　　要：针对"三高"油气井井喷事故危害的严重性,基于集成的DEMATEL/ISM算法建立"三高"油气井井喷事故致因模型。通过提取事故一般性致因因素,利用专家知识确定因素间的关联矩阵,基于集成的DEMATEL/ISM算法,采用定性与定量相结合的方法对致因因素进行结构化处理,并运用到实际案例中,确立了影响川东地区高含硫油气田井喷事故的关键致因因素,形成具有层级关系的事故致因网络。结果表明,钻井现场施工过程中需要加强对节流压井管汇失效、井筒完整性失效等直接致因以及信息传递不畅、人员技能不足等过渡致因的控制,同时加强井队的安全文化教育,提高工人的安全意识,改善地质勘探技术,提高对井下地质环境的认识,是预防井喷事故的长久之计。According to the severity of blowout accidents in "three high"oil and gas wells,a causative model of blowout accident in"three high"oil and gas wells based on the integrated DEMATEL/ISM algorithm was established. Firstly,the general causative factors of accidents were extracted based on accident statistics. Secondly,expert knowledge was used to determine the correlation matrix between factors. Finally,basedon the integrated DEMATEL/ISM algorithm,the causative factors was structured by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. When this model was applied to actual cases,the key causative factors affecting blowout accidents in high sulfur oil and gas fields in eastern Sichuan were determined,forming a hierarchical accident causative network.The results show that the control of direct causes such as choke and kill manifolds failure,wellbore integrity failure and transitional causes such as poor information transmission and insufficient personnel skills during the drilling site construction process. However,only by strengthening the safety culture education of the drilling crew,improving the safety awareness of the workers,improving geological exploration technologyand enhancing the understanding of the underground geological environment can the long-term solution to prevent blowout accidents be achieved.

关 键 词：“三高”油气井 井喷事故 致因因素 DEMATEL/ISM 致因网络 

分 类 号：TE28[石油与天然气工程—油气井工程]