2019年南京市登革热输入和本地传播风险评估  

Risk assessment on importation and autochthonous transmission of dengue fever,Nanjing,2019

作　　者：马涛[1] 张守刚[1] 杜雪飞[1] 范华锋[1] 汪君君 徐庆[1] 孙燕群[1] 何敏[1] 谢国祥[1] 丁洁 卞增惠[1] 孙红敏 林丹[2] 张敏[1] MA Tao;ZHANG Shou-gang;DU Xue-fei;FAN Hua-feng;WANG Jun-jun;XU Qing;SUN Yan-qun;HE min;XIE Guo-xiang;DING Jie;BIAN Zeng-hui;SUN Hong-min;LIN Dan;ZHANG Min(Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省南京市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京210003 [2]福建省疾病预防控制中心,福建福州350001

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2020年第9期1688-1693,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：南京市医学重点专科(传染病预防控制科);南京市卫生计生委“十三五”重大项目(ZDX16020);江苏省预防医学课题(Y2018077)。

摘　　要：目的明确2019年南京市登革热的输入和本地传播风险,科学制定防控策略和措施,指导应急准备,提早部署防控工作。方法采用定量与定性相结合的方法对境外输入的病例数进行估计,对境内输入风险进行定性分析,对影响登革热本地传播的各种因素分别进行赋值并确定权重,采用量化指标对本地传播风险进行分析和评价。结果 2019年南京市境外输入病例数估计为7例(2~12例),存在境内输入风险但较低。2019年7-10月南京市有7个地区本地传播风险为"可能",5-6月除秦淮区本地传播风险为"可能"外,其他地区本地传播的风险均为"不太可能",1-3月和11-12月无本地传播风险。结论南京市2019年仍会有登革热病例输入,7-10月需重点关注登革热本地传播,建议采取病例发现、规范处置、持续监测、健康宣教等综合措施,科学防控登革热疫情。Objective To clarify the risk of importation and local transmission of dengue fever in Nanjing in 2019, to ensure the scientific formulation of preventive and control strategies and measures, to guide emergency preparedness, and to early deploy preventive and control measures. Methods Quantitative and qualitative methods were used to estimate the number of cases imported from abroad. The risk of cases imported domestically was qualitatively analyzed, while the factors affecting the local transmission of dengue fever were assigned and weighted respectively through quantitative indicators. Results In 2019, there would be 7 cases(2-12 cases) of dengue fever imported from abroad in Nanjing, and the risk of domestic importation was low. From July to October 2019, the local transmission risks in seven districts in Nanjing would be "possible". From May to June 2019, the risk of local transmission in Qinhuai area would be "possible", while that in other areas would be "impossible". There was no risk of local transmission from January to March and November to December. Conclusion There will still have imported case of dengue fever in Nanjing in 2019 and local transmission of dengue fever needs to be focused from July to October. It is suggested that comprehensive measures such as case detection, standardized disposal, continuous monitoring and health education should be taken to prevent and control dengue fever scientifically.

关 键 词：登革热 蚊媒传染病 风险评估 输入 本地传播 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]