基于AHP-证据理论的综合管廊火灾安全评价  

Safety evaluation of the utility tunnels’fire based on the AHP-evidence theory

作　　者：黄萍[1] 林秋晖 HUANG Ping;LIN Qiu-hui(College of Environment and Resources,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,China)

机构地区：[1]福州大学环境与资源学院,福州350116

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2020年第1期1-8,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51604082)。

摘　　要：为了进行综合管廊火灾安全评价,提出了基于AHP-证据理论的评价模型。采用AHP法得出综合管廊火灾安全评价体系中各因素的权重,再引入D-S证据理论提高评价的可信度。从"人、机、环、管"四大方面归纳出影响综合管廊火灾安全的潜在影响因素并分级,建立综合管廊火灾安全评价指标体系;通过AHP法得出体系中各因素的权重,再通过信任函数和似然函数的计算得到量化评价结果;最后将多个评价结果进行融合以提高最终评价结果的可信度,并且评判火灾安全等级。对某综合管廊的实例分析表明,当不同专家给出的评价结果有差异时,依据证据理论将不同的证据进行融合,能有效提高综合管廊火灾安全评价的可信度,最终得到可靠的评价结果。通过分析得出设备因素对综合管廊火灾安全评价体系影响最大。The present paper has proposed a safety evaluation of the utility tunnels’fire model based on the AHP-evidence theory in hope to make an assessment of the fire safety situation of the utility tunnels.For the said purpose,we have,first of all,to gain the weight of all the factors involved in the fire safety evaluation system of the utility tunnels with the AHP method.And,then,we would like to introduce a D-S evidence theory to improve the credibility of the evaluation,further.That is to say,first of all,it is necessary to classify the potential factors that may influence the fire safety of the utility tunnels and integrate all the 4 aspects,i.e.those of human factors,mechanical factors,the environmental factors,and those of the management factors,so as to establish an evaluation index system for the fire prevention safety of the utility tunnels on the above said basis.And,next,efforts have to be made to gain the weights of each factor in the system via the AHP method,by adding up the weights of each factor to the fire safety evaluation system of the utility tunnel so as to formulate an integrated fire safety evaluation system of such tunnels.At the same time,the trust function and likelihood function have also to be gained as a result of quantitative comprehensive evaluation.And,finally,it is also necessary to integrate the multiple evaluation results to heighten the credibility of the final evaluation results,particularly,the fire safety grade.A case sample of a utility tunnel shows that,if there exists any difference in the evaluation results given by the different experts,the results of the safety assessment would not be qualified enough.Therefore,the eventual confidential or reliable evaluation results have to make all the pieces of different evidence included and integrated in accordance with the evidence theory.Thus,it is only through all the above comprehensive and integrated analyses that it can be expected to make all the influential factors involved with the equipment application of the utility tunnels

关 键 词：安全工程 证据理论 AHP法 综合管廊火灾 安全评价 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]