工业化失速、房地产混同与中国城镇化进程的动力机制转换  

Stall of Industrialization,Confusion of Real Estate and Dynamic Mechanism Transformation of Urbanization in China

作　　者：刘洪涛[1] 肖功为[1] LIU Hong-tao;XIAO Gong-wei(Hunan Private Economy Research Base,Shaoyang University,Shaoyang 422000,China)

机构地区：[1]邵阳学院湖南省民营经济研究基地,湖南邵阳422000

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第5期112-122,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“供给侧改革下产业政策对产业升级的有效性研究”(18BJL051);湖南省教育厅科学研究创新平台开放基金项目“结构性减速背景下区域经济‘信息化’新动能培育研究”(18K096)。

摘　　要：为了论证中国城镇化进程中的动力机制正在转换以及探讨其如何转换的问题,基于2005—2018年中国国内30个省份的面板数据,引入新的观察窗口——“时间”“空间”以及“时空综合”窗口开展动态及多维观察。结果表明:(1)第一系列研究中,工业化对城镇化的影响正在淡化;服务业对城镇化进程的影响正在加强。(2)第二系列研究中,数据“相悖”事实,从三个方向表明应该对“房地产投资越高,越有利于城镇化发展”的观点持审慎态度;窗口“背离”怪象,其深层次原因在于当中西部地区从“双向促进”机制滑向“双向抑制”机制的同时,东部地区也从“半健康”状态演变到“亚健康”状态。总之,传统工业化正在失速,房地产与城镇化不能、也不应混同。适时抓住信息化引致的传统工业化的转型机遇,是通向未来的必然选择,未来的城镇化进程的竞争归根到底是品位的竞争。Urbanization is China's name for urbanization,an international common concept.Although actively identifying and understanding the dynamic mechanism of urbanization not only plays a vital role in the sustainable and reasonable development of urbanization in the country,but also concerns the future of a country and a nation.However,the problem of urbanization is extremely complicated:urbanization seems to stretch in a natural state,urbanization is easily disorientated by the design of artificial policies,and the problem of urbanization is extremely complicated because of its diversity and intersection.The most urgent thing is that the conclusions drawn from the existing studies on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization are not only loose,but also completely contradictory.In particular,it is necessary to establish a new research model and open up a new path.The research here is a useful attempt based on such thinking.It starts with two key issues:(1)What is the actual impact of industrialization on China's urbanization process?(2)How to view the relationship between real estate investment and regional urbanization in China?The purpose is to answer these doubts:the existing research on the dynamic mechanism of urbanization has not only drawn loose conclusions,but even completely opposite conclusions:if industrialization is the starting point of urbanization,will the force of industrialization on urbanization remain unchanged?If the development of real estate industry and the urbanization process are twin sisters entangled with each other,then should the development of the real estate industry and urbanization be treated equally or differently?The research ideas are as follows:(1)Based on the theoretical analysis,the following assumptions are observed dynamically through empirical data:China's industrialization and urbanization also have closely related history(Assumption 1A).The process of industrialization and urbanization in China has a loose trend(Assumption 1B).The relationship between China's service industry and

关 键 词：工业化失速 房地产混同 城镇化进程 动力机制转换 

分 类 号：F291.4[经济管理—国民经济]