基于随机前沿引力模型的中国大豆进口贸易影响因素研究  

The Influencing Factors of China's Soybean Import Trade Based on Stochastic Front Gravity Model

作　　者：张翔宇 田明华[1] 张亦驰 ZHANG Xiang-yu;TIAN Ming-hua;ZHANG Yi-chi(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《科技和产业》2020年第5期103-108,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：北京林业大学热点追踪项目(2019BLRD02);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(13YJA790106)。

摘　　要：利用1980-2016年中国大豆进口贸易的前8位贸易伙伴国的相关数据,运用随机前沿引力模型将变量划分为基础变量和贸易非效率项同时进行回归分析,研究中国大豆进口贸易的影响因素。结果显示,贸易双方的国内生产总值、贸易双方的大豆产量、中国人口、双边汇率等对中国大豆进口贸易呈正相关;出口国人口、与中国的绝对距离、是否为内陆国家和是否采用转基因安全管理政策等对中国大豆进口贸易呈负相关。根据实证结果计算中国从主要贸易伙伴国的大豆进口贸易潜力和贸易效率,进而提出相关政策建议以争取更加有利的中国大豆进口贸易环境,保证大豆贸易安全。Based on the relevant data of the top 8 trading partners of China's soybean import trade from 1980 to 2016,the stochastic frontier gravitational model was used to study the influencing factors of China’s soybean import trade while the regression analysis was performed after the variables were divided into basic variables and trade inefficiency terms.The results show that six variables,including the GDP of the two trading parties,the soybean output of the two trading parties,the Chinese population,and the bilateral exchange rate,are positively related to China's soybean import trade.Four variables,such as the population of the exporting country,the absolute distance from China,a landlocked country or not,adopting the GM safety management policy,have negative correlation with China's soybean import trade.Based on the empirical results,China's soybean import trade potential and trade efficiency from major trading partner countries are calculated,and relevant policy recommendations are proposed to strive for a more favorable trade environment of China's soybean import and to ensure China's soybean trade security.

关 键 词：大豆 进口贸易 随机前沿引力模型 影响因素 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]