基于弹性估计的“一带一路”沿线国成品油产能合作潜力测算:2019—2028  

Estimation of Cooperation Potential of Refined Oil Production Capacity in Countries along"the Belt and Road"Based on Elastic Estimation:2019—2028

作　　者：孙泽生 蔡芳蒙[2] SUN Zesheng;CAI Fangmeng(School of Finance and Business,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学商学院,上海200434 [2]浙江科技学院经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第2期1-13,共13页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY012)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议下的炼油产能合作需要精准对接沿线国的产能合作需求。以“一带一路”沿线22个国家为例,采用计量模型和弹性分析方法测算其成品油收入弹性,使用情境模拟方法测算其截至2028年的成品油产能合作潜力。研究发现:大多数国家的汽油和柴油收入弹性较小,除中国外的21个主要“一带一路”沿线国柴油和汽油加总的产能合作潜力从2019年的4238.8万吨上升至2023年的6551.2万吨和2028年的1.3747亿吨。产能合作潜力较大国家主要位于南亚和东南亚区域,长期内印度具有庞大的产能合作潜力,印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡等国短期内的合作潜力较大。其他区域内,哈萨克斯坦的长期柴油合作潜力达到百万吨以上,西亚的阿联酋则具有颇大的汽油合作潜力,但除波兰外的中东欧国家以及俄罗斯、土耳其和新加坡等国中长期内均显示出较弱或者负向的产能合作潜力。Refining capacity cooperation under"the Belt and Road Initiative"(B&R)calls for precise matching with the demands of B&R countries.Based on econometric model and elastic analysis,the income elasticity of refined oil for 22 countries is estimated,and scenario simulation is performed to calculate the cooperation potential of refined oil production by 2028.It is found that the income elasticity of gasoline and diesel in most countries is relatively small,and that the combined cooperation potential of diesel and gasoline in countries except China will increase from 42.388 million tons in 2019 to 65.512 million tons in 2023 and 137.47 million tons in 2028.Countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia hold the larger capacity cooperation potential.India holds the largest in the long run,while cooperation potential for Indonesia,Pakistan and Sri Lanka is large in the short term.Kazakhstan s diesel cooperation potential reaches more than one million tons in the long-term,and the UAE in West Asia has considerable cooperation potential of gasoline.However,Russia,Turkey,Singapore,and the central and eastern European countries except Poland all show weak or negative cooperation potential of refined oil.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 成品油 国际产能合作 收入弹性 情境模拟 

分 类 号：F415.1[经济管理—产业经济]