第三方支付、电子货币替代影响交易性货币需求的机理解析  

Mechanism Analysis on the Influence of Third-party Payment and Electronic Money Substitution on Transactional Money Demand

作　　者：段伟杰 陈文晖 Duan Weijie;Chen Wenhui(Jinhe Center for Economic Research,Xian Jiaotong University,Xian 710061;China Fashion Research Institute,Beijing Institute of Fashion Technology,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,西安710061 [2]北京服装学院中国时尚研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《浙江社会科学》2020年第5期15-23,110,156,157,共12页Zhejiang Social Sciences

摘　　要：随着电子信息及互联网技术的不断进步,第三方互联网和移动支付蓬勃发展,电子货币逐渐取代现金和银行卡成为最主流的支付方式,而这对传统的货币需求理论造成了一定的冲击。本文以Romer (1986)构造的简单一般均衡家庭货币需求模型以及Miller-Orr(1966)企业货币需求模型为理论基础,构建电子货币的货币需求模型,以研究电子货币对于家庭及企业交易性货币需求的影响。同时采用ARDL模型,选取2007-2018年季度数据进行实证检验。结果显示:在长期电子货币替代程度的增加会减少交易性货币需求水平,增加货币需求总量预测难度,进而弱化货币政策执行效率,也会给商业银行经营带来巨大挑战。为此建议创新利率调控手段,有效控制货币供给数量;拓展经营业务,增强银行竞争力;顺应数字化支付发展趋势,稳步推进央行数字货币发行工作。With the continuous development of electronic information and Internet technology, both third-party Internet and mobile payment are booming, and electronic money is gradually replacing cash and bank cards as the most mainstream payment method, which has caused a certain impact on the traditional theory of money demand. Based on the simple general equilibrium household money demand model constructed by Romer(1986) and the enterprise money demand model constructed by Miller-Orr(1966), this paper constructs the money demand model of electronic money to study the impact of electronic money on transaction money demand of households and enterprises. ARDL model is adopted at the same time, the selected quarterly data from 2007 to 2018 for empirical testing.The results show that the increase of long-term electronic currency substitution will reduce the level of transactional money demand, increase the difficulty of forecasting the total amount of money demand, and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy implementation, which will also bring great challenges to the operation of commercial banks. Therefore, it is suggested to innovate the means of controlling interest rate, effectively control the quantity of money supply, expand business operations and enhance the competitiveness of banks,in line with the development trend of digital payment, steadily promote the issuance of digital money by the central bank.

关 键 词：第三方支付 电子货币 交易性货币需求 ARDL模型 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济] F832.2