RCP4.5情景下四川省猕猴桃溃疡病菌适生性分析  

Climatic Suitability Regionalization of Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae in Sichuan Province under RCP4.5 Scenario

作　　者：赵金鹏 王茹琳 刘原 陆兴利 王庆 郭翔[5] 文刚[6] 李庆[3] ZHAO Jinpeng;WANG Rulin;LIU Yuan;LU Xingli;WANG Qing;GUO Xiang;WEN Gang;LI Qing(Chengdu Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center,Chengdu 610072,China;College of Agronomy,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;Kiwifruit Institue of Cangxi,Cangxi 628400,China;Sichuan Province Agro-meteorological Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Yibin Municipal Bureau of Agriculture,Yibin 644000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [2]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,四川成都610072 [3]四川农业大学农学院,四川成都611130 [4]四川苍溪猕猴桃研究所,四川苍溪628400 [5]四川省农业气象中心,成都四川610072 [6]宜宾市农业局,四川宜宾644000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2020年第2期137-143,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-重点-05-11);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(省重实验室2018-青年-31);国家现代农业产业体系四川水果创新团队猕猴桃病虫害综合防治岗位(2013-2018)。

摘　　要：分析RCP4.5情景下猕猴桃溃疡病菌在四川范围内的适生性,旨在为猕猴桃种植区划和科学风险评估、监测、预防猕猴桃溃疡病提供参考。选用MaxEnt模型(the maximum entropy model),结合ArcGIS(geographic information system)软件,预测猕猴桃溃疡病致病因子在四川的潜在适生区面积及质心位移变化。利用ROC曲线对模型模拟的准确度进行评价,训练数据和测试数据AUC值均高于0.9。到21世纪80年代,高适生区和低适生区面积在RCP4.5情景下较当前情景下分别增长75.51%和334.75%,而中适生区面积减少25.45%,不同适生区质心位置和迁移规律均有所不同,但总体上均向西北移动。研究虽不能涵盖所有影响猕猴桃溃疡病菌分布的环境因素,但病菌及寄主的分布很大程度上是由气候因子决定。The aim of analyzing the suitability of Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae in Sichuan province under the RCP4.5 scenario is to provide reference for the regionalization of kiwifruit(Actinidia deliciosa)cultivation and scientific risk assessment,monitoring and prevention of kiwifruit bacterial canker.The MaxEnt model(maximum entropy model)and ArcGIS(geographic information system)software were selected to predict the potential suitability area and the centroids’displacement change of kiwifruit bacterial Canker in Sichuan.The ROC curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of model simulation,and the AUC values of both training data and test data were higher than 0.9.Under the RCP4.5 scenario,the areas of slightly and highly suitable increase by 75.5%and 335%compared with the current scenario,respectively,while the area of moderately suitable area decrease by 25.5%.Different suitable areas have different centroids and transfer rules,however,they all moved to the northwest.Although the study could not cover all the environmental factors that affect the distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv.actinidiae,but the distribution of bacteria and host were largely determined by climate.

关 键 词：猕猴桃溃疡病菌 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 适生分析 

分 类 号：S436.634[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]