2015-2017年昆明市大气颗粒物与救护车出诊次数的时间序列分析  

Time-series Analysis on Association Between Ambient Particulate Matter Concentrations and the Number of Emergency Ambulance Dispatches in Kunming in Yunnan Province

作　　者：狄娟[1] 熊庆[1] 杨建斌[1] 段智泉[1] 李建云[1] DI Juan;XIONG Qing;YANG Jianbin;DUAN Zhiquan;LI Jianyun(Institute of Environmental Health,Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming 650022,Yunnan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省疾病预防控制中心环境卫生所,昆明650022

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2019年第8期806-811,共6页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：云南省应用基础研究计划项目(青年项目)(项目编号:2017FD004)。

摘　　要：目的探讨大气颗粒物(PM10、PM2.5)与救护车出诊次数的关联性。方法收集云南省昆明市2015-01-01/2017-12-31期间逐日救护车出诊、大气污染物日均浓度、气象因子等数据,采用基于广义相加模型的时间序列分析,在控制数据长期趋势、气象混杂、星期几效应和节假日效应等基础上,分析不同滞后时间PM10、PM2.5与救护车出诊次数的关系,并对性别和年龄进行分层分析。结果救护车出诊次数与大气PM10、PM2.5呈正相关。PM10(lag01)和PM2.5(lag01)每升高10μg/m^3,救护车出诊次数增加的相对危险度分别为1.0053(95%CI:1.0014~1.0093)和1.0077(95%CI:1.0005~1.0149)。PM10对男性和14岁以下人群影响更大,PM2.5对65岁以上人群影响更强。在引入SO2和NO2后,PM10、PM2.5对救护车出诊次数的影响无统计学意义。结论PM10、PM2.5浓度对救护车出诊次数增加均有不同程度影响,不同性别和年龄组人群易感性可能存在一定差异。Objective To evaluate the association between ambient particulate matter(PM10,PM2.5)concentrations and the number of emergency ambulance dispatches.Methods Data on daily number emergency ambulance dispatches,air pollution and meteorological factors of Kunming in Yunnan Province from January 1,2015 to December 31,2017 were collected.Generalized additive model(GAM)was used to analyze the association between ambient particulate matter concentrations in different lag days and daily number of emergency ambulance dispatches after adjustment for long-term trend,weekday effect,meteorological factors and weekend effect,and stratification analyses were conducted by gender and age.Results The number of emergency ambulance dispatches was positively correlated with PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations.A 10μg/m^3 increase in the lag01 day concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 corresponded to a relative risk of 1.0053(95%CI:1.0014-1.0093)and 1.0077(95%CI:1.0005-1.0149)in increase of emergency ambulance dispatches,respectively.Males and children under 14 years of age were more affected by PM10..PM2.5 had a stronger effect on people aged over65 years.With introduction of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide,the effects of PM10 and PM2.5 on the number of emergency ambulance dispatches were not statistically significant.Conclusion Exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 is associated with an increased number of emergency ambulance dispatches.There may be some differences in susceptibility among different gender and age groups.

关 键 词：PM10 PM2.5 救护车出诊次数 广义相加模型 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]