绿色发展下的区域碳排放绩效及环境规制的门槛效应研究——基于SE-SBM与双门槛面板模型  

Research on Regional Carbon Emission Performance and Environmental Regulation Threshold Effect under Green Development--Based on SE-SBM and Double Sill Panel Model

作　　者：蓝虹[1] 王柳元 LAN Hong;WANG Liu-yuan(School of Environment,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《软科学》2019年第8期73-77,97,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金项目(2017M621622);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2018B23614);教育部人文社会科学基金(17YJC790194)。

摘　　要：利用2009~2017年中国大陆30个省域的面板数据,研究其碳排放绩效并分析其驱动效应。选取资本、能源消费、劳动力为投入指标,GDP为合意产出、碳排放量为非合意产出,采用SE-SBM模型测算全要素碳排放绩效;其次,通过构造门槛面板模型,分析环境规制对碳排放绩效的门槛效应,以及经济发展、产业结构、技术进步、FDI、对外开放等控制变量对碳排放效率的影响效应。结果表明:我国区域的碳排放绩效呈现U型,东、中、西部存在差异,但呈现收敛趋势,就中国现阶段而言,环境规制对碳排放绩效存在双门槛效应,但是目前仍处在"绿色悖论"阶段,人均生产总值、技术进步、FDI、对外开放程度对碳排放效率有促进作用,工业比重与碳排放绩效负相关,未出现"污染避难所"效应。因此,应该选择合理的环境规制政策、改革能源价格、升级产业结构、积极利用外资、提高技术创新能力以保证良性发展。This paper uses the panel data of China’s 30 provinces from 2009 to 2017 to study their carbon emission performance and analyze their driving effects.Firstly,it selects capital,energy consumption and labor force as input indicators,GDP as a consensus output,and carbon emissions as unsatisfactory output,and uses the SE-SBM model to measure the performance of total factor carbon emissions.Secondly,by constructing a threshold panel model,the threshold effect of environmental regulation on carbon emissions performance is analyzed,as well as the effect of control variables such as economic development,industrial structure,technological progress,FDI,and openness on carbon emission efficiency.The results show that the carbon emission performance of China is U-shaped,with differences in the east,middle,and west,but it shows a convergence trend.At the present stage of China,environmental regulation has a double-threshold effect on carbon emission performance,but it is still in the green paradox stage at present.The per capita GDP,technological progress,FDI,and openness to the outside world have a promoting effect on carbon emission efficiency.The proportion of industry is negatively correlated with the performance of carbon emissions.There is no pollution shelter effect.Therefore,the government should choose reasonable environmental regulation policies,reform energy prices,upgrade industrial structures,actively use foreign capital,and improve technological innovation capabilities to ensure healthy development.

关 键 词：环境规制 碳排放绩效 SE-SBM模型 门槛模型 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F061