化工园区事故链重要节点及关键传播路径研究  

Research on important nodes and key propagation paths of accident chains in chemical industry parks

作　　者：杨燕霞 王政[1] 徐一凡 胡艺艺 贾小平[2] 王芳[2] YANG Yan-xia;WANG Zheng;XU Yi-fan;HU Yi-yi;JIA Xiao-ping;WANG Fang(School of Chemical Engineering,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266042,China;School of Environment and Safety Engineering,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266042,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学化工学院,山东青岛266042 [2]青岛科技大学环境与安全工程学院,山东青岛266042

出　　处：《高校化学工程学报》2020年第2期503-511,共9页Journal of Chemical Engineering of Chinese Universities

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41771575)。

摘　　要：针对化工园区事故影响因素繁多、事故链节点关联复杂、传播路径不确定等问题,提出一种基于复杂网络理论构建化工园区事故链模型并确定重要节点和关键事故传播路径的方法。首先根据事故链各影响因素间的作用关系建立化工园区事故链网络模型;其次结合改进的多属性决策方法(TOPSIS)和加权LeaderRank算法2种方法的计算结果得出该网络模型的重要节点;最后基于事故传播强度识别事故链网络的关键事故传播路径。结果表明该方法可有效确定化工园区事故链网络的重要节点和关键事故传播路径,为化工园区事故的预防和预测提供理论依据。Accidents happened in chemical industry parks have multiple affecting factors, complex accident connecting chain nodes and uncertainty propagation paths. A method based on the complex network theory to construct the accident chain model and determine the important nodes and key accident propagation paths was proposed. Based on the relationship among the affecting factors of the accident chain, an accident chain network model of the chemical park was established. An improved TOPSIS method and weighted LeaderRank algorithm were used to calculate the key nodes of the network model. Finally, the key accident propagation path of the accident chain network based on the intensity of accident propagation was identified. The results show that the method can effectively determine the key nodes and key accident propagation paths of the accident chain network, and can provide theoretical basis for preventing accidents in chemical industry parks.

关 键 词：化工园区 事故链 关键节点 事故传播强度 关键事故传播路径 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]