2013-2017年海南省三亚地区气象因素与类鼻疽发病的相关性分析  

Correlation between climatic factors and incidence of melioidosis in Sanya,Hainan

作　　者：朱雄[1] 何吕芬 匡慧慧 李欢[1] 李沙[1] 陈海[1] 郑霄[3] 王立程 陈如寿[4] Zhu Xiong;He Lyufen;Kuang Huihui;Li Huan;Li Sha;Chen Hai;Zheng Xiao;Wang Licheng;Chen Rushou(Sanya People's Hospital,Sanya 572000,Hainan,China;Hainan Branch of People's Liberation Army General Hospital,Sanya 572013,Hainan,China;State Key Laboratory for Communicable Disease Prevention and Control,National Institute for Communicable Disease Prevention and Control,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;The Third People's Hospital of Hainan,Sanya 572000,Hainan,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省三亚市人民医院,海南三亚572000 [2]解放军总医院海南分院,海南三亚572013 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,传染病预防控制国家重点实验室,北京102206 [4]海南省第三人民医院,海南三亚572000

出　　处：《疾病监测》2020年第2期156-161,共6页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：海南省重点研发计划项目(No.ZDYF2019149);海南省自然科学基金(No.814389);三亚市医疗卫生科技创新项目(No.2019YW20)。

摘　　要：目的探讨气象因素变化对类鼻疽发病的影响,为类鼻疽的防控提供依据。方法对海南省三亚地区2013-2017年类鼻疽月平均发病数据进行分析,对可能影响发病的降水量、风速、气温3项研究变量进行单因素相关分析和多元逐步回归分析。结果本研究收集类鼻疽患者123例,平均年龄51.20岁,41~60岁组患者占53.66%。男性多于女性,占81.30%。临床表现为败血症的79例(64.23%),肺炎64例(52.03%)。7-10月为高峰期,其病例数占全年的66.67%。单因素相关分析显示,类鼻疽发病与平均降水量、风速等均有显著相关(r=0.765,P=0.004;r=0.614,P=0.034),与气温无显著相关性((r=0.358,P=0.258)。多元逐步回归分析显示,类鼻疽发病与平均降水量显著相关(P=0.001)。结论三亚地区气候因素是类鼻疽发病流行的重要影响因素,降水量与发病数呈正相关,类鼻疽在降水量大的月份易流行,风速大加速类鼻疽的传播。三亚地区全年气温波动较小,与发病数无显著相关性。Objective To evaluate the influence of climatic factors on the incidence of melioidosis, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of melioidosis. Methods The average incidence data of melioidosis in Sanya of Hainan from 2013 to 2017 was analyzed, and univariate correlation analysis and multivariate stepwise regression analysis were performed on three research variables, i.e. precipitation, wind speed and air temperature, which might affect the incidence of melioidosis.Results In this study, a total 123 patients with melioidosis were included in the analysis. The average age of the patients was51.20 years, and those aged 41–60 years accounted for 53.66%. More cases occurred in males than in females, accounting for81.30%. Sepsis occurred in 79 cases(64.23%) and pneumonia in 64 cases(52.03%). The incidence peak period was during July-October, and 66.67% of the cases occurred during this period. Univariate correlation analysis showed that the incidence of melioidosis was significantly correlated with mean precipitation and wind speed(r=0.765,P=0.004;r=0.614,P=0.034),and there was no significant correlation with air temperature(r=0.358,P=0.258). Multivariate stepwise regression analysis showed that the incidence of melioidosis was significantly correlated with mean precipitation and wind speed(P=0.001).Conclusion The climate is an important factor affecting the incidence of melioidosis in Sanya, and the precipitation is positively correlated with the case number. When the wind speed is high, the spread of melioidosis is accelerated. The air temperature fluctuation in Sanya is small throughout the year, and has no significant correlation with the case number.

关 键 词：类鼻疽 降水量 风速 气温 

分 类 号：R516[医药卫生—内科学]